County Home Sales for 1998 Best in a Decade

A home-buying frenzy fueled by low interest rates and a strong economy pushed sales in Ventura County this year to levels not seen since the housing boom a decade ago, analysts reported.

“It’s the best year since 1988, that’s for sure,” said John Karevoll, financial editor for Acxiom/DataQuick, a statistical research service. “And next year looks just as good. We have activity in all categories and all communities. There is nothing ominous that we can see.”

Through the first 11 months of this year sales for detached single-family homes and condos were up 25.6% from 1997 and prices had surged 8.8%.

Among Southland counties, Ventura was second only to San Diego in leading the regional real estate rebound. Orange County was third.

Sales are projected to reach 14,550 homes and condos for all of 1998, up 66% from seven years ago when the real estate market hit bottom, Karevoll said.

Not since 14,523 dwellings sold in 1989 has the market been so hot. The price of a typical Ventura County house has now rebounded from a low of $189,000 in 1995 to $223,000 this year.

“Home values still have not reached the 1989 peak,” Karevoll said. That was $228,000. “But it’s virtually a certainty we’re going to regain all that lost value in this coming year because interest rates are so low.”

Rates last week were down to 6.65% for a 30-year mortgage with a fixed rate, compared with about 10% in 1989.

From Thousand Oaks to Ventura, buyers stood in line this year to snap up large new houses in upscale neighborhoods or to bid on tiny homes in established neighborhoods.

At one Camarillo project, buyers camped overnight just to bid on new houses. The same thing happened in Newbury Park.

“The average price here is up 12% to 15%,” said Jim Keith, president of the Conejo Valley Assn. of Realtors. “Next year is going to be very strong, too. We’re not going to see the appreciation we did this year, but there is still a great deal of demand out there.”

But there remains a shortage of supply.

When the market was red hot last summer, the Conejo Valley had only about 550 houses for sale, he said. That compares with 2,650 during the glut of four or five years ago. About 520 homes are up for sale now.

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Inventory also remains low in the seven cities of the west county, said Jim Barraca, spokesman for the Realtors group that covers that area. About 1,000 homes are available for sale in those cities today, compared with about 1,500 a year ago. The typical house stayed on the market 88 days a year ago, he said, but now sells in 76 days.

With inventories down, prices are up, Barraca said. “The median price of a single-family home went up from $190,000 to $220,000 this year,” he said. “And it’s rising all the time.”

Projections are similarly upbeat for the state as a whole.

The California Assn. of Realtors is projecting a statewide 4% increase in sales price for existing single-family homes in 1999. Homes reached a record high of $206,900 for the first nine months of this year.

The state association predicts a 4% drop in sales next year from the super-heated pace of 1998.

But local real estate agents are optimistic, since the fuel that fires the housing market is the mortgage interest rate, which is expected to stay low.

“The interest rates coming down has helped a lot of people who couldn’t afford a house before,” said Jeff Comstock of Oxnard, president of the Ventura County Coastal Assn. of Realtors. “That’s why my crystal ball says we’re going to do real well in 1999.”

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Even with increased prices, low rates make homes more affordable than they have been in years.

According to the state Realtors association, 47% of Ventura County’s households can now afford a typical house. That compares with 21% in 1990, when interest rates were 3 percentage points higher. Statewide, 42% of households can afford to buy the typically priced home.