Events Outline Window for an Attack on Iraq

Throughout the Mideast, across Europe and in Asia’s capitals, a single question looms large behind every troop deployment to the Persian Gulf and each diplomatic mission to Baghdad: What is the deadline on Iraq?

For all the talk of “time running out,” Clinton administration officials insist that no date has been set to shift from talking to bombing. But a series of events offers guidelines about possible dates--both to launch a punitive airstrike and to end it.

The factors likely to shape the timetable range from military preparations to diplomatic initiatives running their course. They also include unrelated variables, such as the traditional truce in conflicts during the Olympic Games and the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia’s two holy sites.

Considering the following factors, the ideal window of opportunity appears to run from Feb. 23 to about March 20:

* Diplomatic initiatives. In an attempt to prevent a military attack, an array of nations has made Baghdad a revolving door of diplomacy. French, Turkish, Russian and Arab League envoys have already urged Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to comply with U.N. disarmament efforts. Other envoys may follow.

Russian efforts are pivotal, in part because Moscow last November persuaded its long-standing ally to reverse a ban on American weapons inspectors.

Deputy Foreign Minister Viktor Posuvalyuk has been to Baghdad twice recently and may go again, U.S. officials say. Russia’s lower house of parliament is sending a delegation this week and has urged the U.S. Congress to do the same. And Foreign Minister Yevgeny M. Primakov, who negotiated Iraq’s last reversal, is widely believed to be holding himself in reserve for a final diplomatic effort.

Diplomacy can eat up time. Intense mediation during Operation Desert Shield led to a lapse of almost seven months between Iraq’s August 1990 invasion of Kuwait and the February 1991 ground assault. Since a possible U.S. airstrike would probably be the most punitive military action since the Persian Gulf War, diplomatic efforts to avert it could again absorb time.

* U.N. resolution. Debate will probably begin at the United Nations this week on a new resolution condemning Iraq for being in “material breach” of U.N. cease-fire resolutions. Negotiations over wording are likely to be intense, in part because Russia does not want to pass a severe resolution that might appear to approve military action.

The United States has long argued that it does not need additional international approval because existing U.N. resolutions provide authority to punish Iraq. U.S. officials also fear that the “material breach” language would bring a Russian veto, demonstrating that the U.N. is not unified on the issue--exactly what Hussein is seeking.

But politically, Britain believes that it needs the legal cover of a specific new resolution to appease its own domestic audience before joining the U.S. in a military operation. Finding a compromise could take time.

* Military preparedness. The United States and Britain are still positioning troops, warplanes and ships in the region.

The Pentagon is sending a Marine expeditionary unit of about 2,200 troops aboard four ships, which will take at least another week to be in position.

U.S. Defense Secretary William S. Cohen on Saturday also approved the deployment of dozens of additional aircraft to the region.

An issue still to be determined is whether Saudi Arabia will allow use of its military bases for an airstrike, which is important both for political and military reasons.

The outcome of U.S.-Saudi negotiations may be decided during Cohen’s talks with Gulf states this week, leading to possible repositioning of U.S. equipment or personnel.

Cohen is scheduled to return from the Gulf and a final stop in Moscow on Friday. Because of his travels and talks, the earliest possible date for action is widely considered to be Saturday, although other factors are likely to delay it longer. Those include:

* The Olympics. Japan, the host nation, and the International Olympic Committee have appealed to the United States not to engage in military action during the Winter Olympics, which opened Friday and end Feb. 22.

Last week, Cohen said Washington had not set a timetable: “We have not taken into account external events. It would not be responsible to say, ‘Let’s wait until the Olympics are over.’ ”

But the United States is a signatory to a nonbinding U.N. resolution that calls on all countries to honor a cease-fire during the Olympic Games.

“Our hope, we can say only our hope, is the Olympic truce will be observed,” IOC President Juan Antonio Samaranch said in a public appeal Friday.

As the White House deliberates, it is sensitive to the public relations side of its Iraq strategy and the potential outcry at home and abroad, U.S. officials concede.

* The hajj. Saudi Arabia wants all military activity to be over well before the beginning of hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca and Medina that is the high point of the Islamic year.

Mecca and Medina are where the prophet Muhammad founded the Islamic faith. The month centered on the hajj begins March 30, and the Feast of Sacrifice, the peak of the pilgrimage season, is April 7.

But the 1 million pilgrims who assemble from at least 70 nations begin the trek to Saudi Arabia up to two weeks before the hajj begins--or around March 20, according to John Voll of Georgetown University’s Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding.

Saudi Arabia considers it important to ensure tranquillity during the hajj.

The Clinton administration is again likely to be sensitive to any issue of Saudi stability, which is a leading U.S. foreign policy goal and a central reason for U.S. military involvement so far from home. Saudi cooperation long-term is also critical because thousands of U.S. troops and dozens of warplanes are based in Saudi Arabia to monitor Iraq’s southern “no-fly” zone.

* Iraq’s strategy. The course of events will ultimately boil down to Hussein. His actions will also weigh heavily in the timing.

Hussein has much to gain by stalling a decision, in part because he is basking in the current attention. The standoff also renews international focus on the plight of the Iraqi people, which is expected to lead to an increase in the U.N. oil-for-food deal.