A Little Rain and Then a Lot

More rain is on the way--a little tonight, a lot more Saturday night--and the National Guard says that troops in Southern California are being held in reserve because of the continuing threat.

“The storm coming in Saturday is the same one that dropped all that snow on Nagano early this week,” meteorologist John Sherwin said. “It looks a lot like one in January ‘83, a previous El Nino winter, that wreaked havoc in Southern California.”

Sherwin--who works for WeatherData Inc., a firm that provides forecasts for The Times--said Saturday’s storm may follow a classic El Nino scenario.

He said that as it tracks across the Pacific, the tail of the cold, northern Pacific weather system could swing far enough south to sweep extra moisture from a flare-up of thunderstorm activity south of Hawaii.

“You already have a dynamic storm system, one that is really strong, and if you add that moisture, you’re going to make it rain even harder,” Sherwin said.

“We’re already looking at up to 2 inches of rain at the Civic Center, with maybe twice that much in the foothills,” he said. “And if it all comes together, you’re going to get a lot more rain than that.”

But before that storm delivers a major blow, an earlier storm may tease the Southland with a gentle slap, the meteorologist said.

The earlier storm, which was poised off the coasts of Washington and Oregon on Wednesday afternoon, was expected to move straight onshore today and tonight, largely bypassing Southern California.

“Los Angeles might get a few showers, but if there are any, they’ll probably be light,” Sherwin said.

Skies are expected to clear by Friday afternoon, then cloud up again Saturday with the approach of the more powerful second storm, which is expected to follow a shifting storm track and strike directly at Southern California.

“The worst of it will come Saturday night and early Sunday,” Sherwin said. “The rain will continue on Sunday, and there could even be some thundershowers on Sunday afternoon.”

Sherwin said snowfall in the San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountains should be generally heavy, with snow levels dipping from about 7,000 feet Saturday night to 4,000 feet early Sunday.

Sherwin compared the storm to one that slammed into the Southern California coast Jan. 28, 1983, battering homes, piers and other beachfront structures with massive waves and punishing inland communities with torrential rain and gale-force winds.

Col. William Wade, director of planning and operations for the California National Guard, said Wednesday that about 1,000 of the state’s 22,000 Air and Army National Guard troops are deployed in rain-drenched Northern California to help with recovery operations there.

Residents of 25 hillside homes in the Russian River community of Rio Nido were ordered to evacuate Wednesday because of possible mudslides. In the coastal town of Pacifica, just south of San Francisco, residents were warned that slides could occur at any time. Near Shasta Lake, about 150,000 cubic yards of mud and dirt slid onto Interstate 5, closing one lane of the state’s primary north-south highway.

Of the 21,000 Guard troops yet to be deployed, about two-thirds live in Southern California, Wade said.

Thus far, the Southland Guard force of about 14,000 is “virtually untouched,” he said, except for a contingent of about 75 soldiers flown to Monterey to fill out understaffed units there.

Wade told a group of Los Angeles and Ventura county fire and police officials Wednesday that most of the Southern California troops are being kept in place because of the continuing possibility of flooding and mudslides here.

“We’re still waiting to see what happens,” he said.

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A Wet Weekend

Southern California can expect a little rain tonight and a lot more Saturday night and early Sunday, weather experts say. If the tail of a weather system now in the northern Pacific swings far enough south to sweep up extra moisture from thunderstorm activity south of Hawaii, the West Coast can expect a thorough drenching this weekend.

Saturday and Sunday: A potentially powerful storm is approaching.

Today: Only light rain is forecast in L.A. area from this storm.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/WeatherData Inc.