Big ‘If’ Over N. Korea Initiative

In a possibly major policy shift, North Korea says it is ready to talk with the government of South Korean President-elect Kim Dae Jung, with the aim of promoting “coexistence, co-prosperity, common interests, mutual collaboration and unity between fellow countrymen.” Kim takes office next week, and his National Congress for New Politics party has already welcomed Pyongyang’s overture. If it in fact signifies a readiness for change, the way could be open for an unprecedented improvement in relations after more than 50 years of animosity. But that “if” looms large, given North Korea’s history of duplicity and erratic policy swings where the south is concerned.

Pyongyang has disdained direct contacts with Seoul since its founding leader, Kim Il Sung, died in 1994. At the time of his death Kim was preparing for a meeting in North Korea with South Korean President Kim Young Sam, which would have been the first between the heads of the two Koreas. Kim Il Sung’s death froze any chance for an early change in relations, ostensibly because North Korea claimed to be insulted by Seoul’s failure to condole adequately for the death of its revered leader. More likely Pyongyang decided to freeze relations while it sorted out how power would be apportioned in the post-Kim era.

With Kim’s son, Kim Jong Il, now apparently firmly in command and with a moderate new government about to take over in Seoul, Pyongyang may have decided it is time for a more pragmatic approach. Rational calculation may have convinced its leader that his country’s deepening famine and economic crisis require an easing of the confrontation with South Korea as a prelude to winning increased food and other aid. What would be evidence of Pyongyang’s sincerity? Certainly agreeing to a program to allow contacts between families separated by the 1950-53 war would be an important start. North Korea says it’s ready to talk. The test will be in what it has to say.