Now It’s Wait and See

The agreement that U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan brought back from Baghdad apparently defuses the crisis with Iraq, at least for now. Saddam Hussein has promised to allow international weapons inspectors unhindered access to what President Clinton describes as “all suspect sites,” including those to which Baghdad had most recently tried to deny or restrict entry. That’s enough to lift the imminent threat of punitive U.S. and British air attacks. As welcome as this turn is, it should not be mistaken for a breakthrough. Iraq has simply promised again to do what it first promised to do seven years ago--cooperate fully with the United Nations to give up all its weapons of mass destruction.

Clinton has found the Baghdad agreement acceptable, while realistically questioning its durability and warning that “serious consequences” will result if Iraq fails to abide fully by its terms. His skepticism is warranted. The record shows irrefutably that Iraq has forfeited all claims to have its professions of good faith and good behavior taken seriously. What matters as always is not what Iraq says but what it does, and here it stands starkly condemned by its own sordid actions. Over and over it has sought to deceive U.N. inspectors, cheat on its obligations, hide what it has promised to reveal. Iraq has provided no reason why it should be trusted, and there is little reason to think that the deal it reached last weekend signifies an end to its duplicity.

To say this is not to diminish Annan’s achievement. He went to Baghdad armed with the determination of the five permanent members of the Security Council that Iraq must give up all its weapons of mass destruction. What he drove home in talks with Iraqi leaders, according to aides, was that even though the five were divided on the issue of when military power should be used to enforce their resolutions, they were united in insisting that Iraqi cheating and evasions must stop and that Baghdad could not set time limits or other conditions for when and where weapons inspections could take place. Further, Annan seems to have emphasized that the United States and Britain were dead serious about using the considerable power they had built up in the Persian Gulf if Baghdad’s obduracy continued. This was sound and effective diplomacy.

American military power in the Gulf will remain in place for now, Clinton says, but clearly it cannot be maintained indefinitely at its current level. The economic cost as well as the toll on morale would not permit that, which may be what Hussein is counting on if, as there is reason to fear, he contemplates yet another period of limited cooperation with U.N. inspectors, followed by a renewed effort to block access.

Hussein would be wise not to underestimate American resolve or to assume that he can count on another face-saving diplomatic bailout. The United States should begin now to build as broad a coalition as possible in support of future military action, should that be needed. Iraq escaped the fire this time. Next time could well be different.