Japan’s Foreign Minister Likely Pick for Premier

When the ruling Liberal Democratic Party decides on Japan’s next prime minister today, it is likely to pick the very man least likely to win a leadership contest in the West.

Nevertheless, selecting Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, one of the least charismatic of the mostly forgettable men who have run Japan in recent decades, over Seiroku Kajiyama, the fiery favorite of the international markets and the West, is the wisest choice for extricating Japan from financial crisis, say a growing number of lawmakers and independent political analysts here.

Their reasoning is deceptively simple: The Japanese definition of leadership differs from the American concept. Under Japan’s parliamentary system, it is the most skillful party insider--not the most telegenic candidate or the one with the best policy ideas--who is most likely to succeed politically.

Moreover, though Obuchi trails in the Japanese public opinion polls released this week that find reformist Health Minister Junichiro Koizumi, 56, is the public’s top choice for prime minister, surveys of Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers--the only ones who will vote in today’s election--consistently show Obuchi leading.

That’s because Obuchi, leader of the LDP’s largest faction, is seen as the man with the power base to coax vital legislation on reforming the Japanese financial system through parliament this summer--the first step toward convincing a skeptical world that Japan’s leaders have an adequate plan for reviving the world’s No. 2 economy, and thus possibly preventing a global economic slump.

“Power is not unimportant in politics,” said Tokyo University professor Takashi Inoguchi. “Obuchi has the most solid chances of getting the economic recovery package passed fastest.”

“The person with the biggest power base in the party is the one who can get things done,” agreed Toshiyuki Takahashi, a senior editor at the Yomiuri newspaper. Takahashi noted that Obuchi’s skills as a quiet negotiator are suited to the task of cajoling support from a hostile opposition.

Ryutaro Hashimoto was elected prime minister on the strength of his public popularity, but his lack of a power base within the party and his reportedly poor listening skills are blamed for paralyzing the LDP for months in the face of a worsening financial crisis.

“Considering the way things work in Japan, the leader shouldn’t be chosen on the basis of mass popularity,” said Kazuo Aichi, a former LDP Cabinet member and Obuchi supporter. “A prime minister can’t change the country the way a U.S. president can change America. . . . It’s a mistake to view this by American standards.”

Citing failures of Japan’s political leadership, a major credit rating agency warned Thursday that it might downgrade its triple-A rating for Tokyo’s government debt, a blow to Japan’s struggling economy that could mean higher borrowing costs for the nation.

The action by U.S.-based Moody’s underscored the urgency that foreign investors attach to reforming Japan’s banking woes and other economic problems, analysts said.

In ordinary times, the obscure and arcane process by which Japanese leaders are chosen would attract little international attention. But with the fate of Japan’s troubled Asian neighbors and even the U.S. economy seen hanging in the balance, all eyes are on today’s secret balloting to choose the LDP president, who will automatically be voted prime minister when parliament reconvenes next Thursday.

The resulting media coverage has appalled many Japanese officials. Some are irritated at foreigners’ presumption in taking sides in the domestic leadership contest.

Other Japanese officials have bridled at reports in some U.S. media that all three candidates to replace Hashimoto lack leadership qualities. Foreign Ministry officials have complained to reporters about a quote from respected Tokyo-based political analyst John Neuffer, an American, who remarked that Obuchi has “all the pizazz of cold pizza.”

“The U.S. media’s tendency to criticize and bash anything Japanese appears to be a kind of trend in the United States,” Kunihiko Saito, Japan’s ambassador to the United States, fumed Tuesday.

“The irritation level is rising very fast,” said Gerald Curtis, a Japan expert from Columbia University, citing the perception that “the Americans are simply trying to push people around and to set the agenda here. That kind of hubris . . . is very powerful.”

Clear evidence that the markets are rooting for Kajiyama came when the yen leaped last week on news that Kajiyama, 72, would challenge Obuchi, 61, for the top job, then fell steadily this week as survey after survey in the local media showed that Kajiyama is not likely to prevail.

Ironically, though Kajiyama is favored by the international financial world because he was an early advocate of tax cuts and financial stimulus measures to boost the economy, in Japanese political circles, he is known as “a political operator, a fixer, a very skilled machine politician,” sources said.

Moreover, many LDP lawmakers still blame him for triggering a party split in 1993. “Kajiyama is one of the reasons I quit the LDP,” said Shigeru Ishiba, 41, a lawmaker who recently rejoined the party and is now supporting Obuchi.

Nor are lawmakers convinced that Kajiyama’s current prescriptions for drastic economic reform--however popular with Westerners--are appropriate for Japan.

“There can be no soft landing for reform of the Japanese financial system. We only have the option of a hard landing,” said lawmaker Yoshimi Watanabe. But “if we go with Kajiyama’s ideas, it’s not just going to be a hard landing, it’s going to be a crash landing.”

Several Obuchi backers said the foreign minister has gotten a bum rap in both the Japanese and the Western press as a bland and uninspiring party hack, describing him instead as “charming,” “warm-hearted,” “well-studied,” and a good listener who quickly wins affection from others. But asked for anecdotes to support these descriptions, several lawmakers seemed to draw blanks.

“I can’t really recall any specific incidents, and maybe that says it all,” Aichi said, laughing. “Some people say Obuchi is boring . . . but he’s a really nice guy. He’s the person who has the least number of stories about him” of the three aspiring prime ministers--but he also has the least number of enemies, he said.

Despite Obuchi’s seemingly overwhelming advantage, today’s LDP election could still surprise. Not a single major Japanese pollster or media outlet anticipated the disastrous electoral performance of the LDP on July 12 that forced Hashimoto to announce his resignation a day later.

A total of 414 LDP officials--every LDP member in both chambers of parliament and a representative from each of Japan’s 47 prefectures--are allowed to cast ballots. If no one wins a majority on the first ballot, a runoff will be held later in the day.

While the party’s factional bosses have lined up behind their candidates, the outcome could hinge on young LDP backbenchers, some of whom fear that choosing Obuchi as prime minister could doom the LDP to defeat at the next parliamentary election, which must be held by autumn of 2000.

Should these Young Turks decide that their elders are once again misjudging the public mood, and defect en masse to the popular Koizumi, the LDP could suffer the second major shock to its system in two weeks, analysts said.

Times staff writer Valerie Reitman in Tokyo contributed to this report. For an update on the selection of Japan’s prime minister, go to The Times’ Web site at: https://www.latimes.com