County Unemployment Drops to 4.4%

A surge in retail and business service jobs pushed Ventura County’s unemployment rate down to 4.4% in May, the lowest figure in more than eight years and 1.2% lower than a year earlier.

Employment countywide grew by 1,600 jobs since April and by about 6,300 jobs since May 1997, according to a report released Friday by the state Employment Development Department. About 17,000 people were unemployed, far below the 21,200 in May 1997.

“It’s a good sign of the continuing recovery in Ventura [County],” Dee Johnson of the unemployment agency said.

Local employers say they are feeling the results of the tight job market.

“It has gone from an employers’ market to an employees’ market,” said Betty Andrews, Camarillo branch manager for Manpower, a temporary employment agency. “We have lots of jobs out there and we’re running out of people.”

The shortage of workers, especially high-skilled personnel, could create upward pressure on wages, Andrews said. “Your good-quality, experienced workers are getting fewer and farther between.”

But the good news could bring trouble in the future, a local economist warned.

“I think the report is generally quite positive,” said Mark Schniepp of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast project. “However, when you look beyond the obvious, you do find some problems that could be emerging.”

A 4.4% unemployment rate means the existing labor force is fully employed, Schniepp said, so any job growth will depend on workers migrating into the county.

But the county’s restrictive and increasingly expensive housing market could hamper that migration, according to Schniepp.

“The housing shortage could ultimately serve as some constraint to the current labor market expansion,” he said.

The continuing boom also could spur inflation, Schniepp warned.

The Ventura County unemployment rate has not dipped to 4.4% since February 1990, state analyst Johnson said. The preliminary rate for April was 4.4%, but Friday’s report revised April’s figure to 4.5%.

The retail trade sector received the biggest boost, according to the report, growing by 600 jobs in May, or about 1.3%. About half of those jobs were in the restaurant industry.

Business service jobs also recorded high gains as employers added 400 jobs in May, a 1.9% increase over April. The business services sector has grown by 1,200 jobs, or 5.9%, in the past year.

The overall service sector also continued to grow at a steady pace, adding 500 jobs in May and about 2,800 jobs since last year.

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Ventura County Jobless Rate

May 1998: 4.4%

Source: California Employment Development Department