No Rival in Sight for Suharto

For years, Indonesians dared criticize President Suharto only in whispers. But with opposition to his rule becoming more outspoken by the day, people are beginning to ask: How long can Suharto last, and who comes next?

The answer, most agree, is that with no clear opposition leader in sight and with military commanders solidly behind him, the 76-year-old president may well serve until he dies.

Suharto has managed to retain power for 32 years by ruling with a combination of guile, paternalism and ruthlessness. He has destroyed institutions and muzzled individuals who represented potential opposition. He played military commanders against one another until, in the end, only the loyalists were left and all power was held by what in effect became a royal family.

“His ability to maintain power has gone beyond all expectations,” said Umar Juoro, director of the National Development Institute. “Suharto has both political and economic people in his hand. No one is in a good position to challenge him. It takes time for credible opposition to appear, and right now there is no credible opposition.”

Despite recent student demonstrations and food riots, few analysts see a “people power” movement emerging in Indonesia such as the one that overthrew Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos in 1986. Nor do they think Indonesia stands on the brink of catastrophic social upheaval as in 1965, when an estimated 500,000 people were killed in the government’s purge of Communists and dissidents.

First, there is no obvious figure around whom popular support seems likely to coalesce. Second, the 435,000-man military and police force remains the source of power in Indonesia, and its senior commanders, including Suharto’s son-in-law, were chosen for their loyalty to the president. And third, the killings in 1965 happened in an ideological context that no longer exists.

Unlike, say, the former shah of Iran, Suharto is not hated by his subjects. Unlike Marcos, he is not seen as a despot whose primary achievement was making himself rich. Suharto lives in a modest neighborhood in a house filled with commonplace furnishings; he built his fortune while bringing great development to Indonesia. And, unlike his predecessor, Sukarno, he does not run a country torn asunder by social and political antagonisms.

If Suharto, who suffered a mild stroke in December, died in office or became enfeebled, the 1945 constitution stipulates that the vice president, B. J. Habibie, 61, would assume the presidency. However, Suharto has avoided grooming a successor for 32 years, and, using the emergency powers he recently took, he could dump Habibie and install anyone of his choosing if he ever decided to step down and hand over power.

Habibie is not a favorite of the military, and that alone puts his political future in doubt. A German-educated aeronautical engineer, he has a photographic memory and works hard, but he was never in the army and has been involved with some big-money projects that have put him in conflict with the generals.

His business interests include arms manufacturing, shipyards and aircraft maintenance--areas that traditionally were controlled by the military. In 1991, he stunned the generals by deciding unilaterally to buy 39 decrepit East German warships for what he thought was a bargain $12 million. It turned out the vessels were not appropriate for Indonesia’s tropical navy, and the cost of refitting them rose to hundreds of millions of dollars.

The most prominent figure standing in opposition to the Suharto-Habibie regime is Megawati Sukarnoputri, 50, the daughter of Sukarno, Indonesia’s first president. She has a large following among lower-class Indonesians but is under pressure from security agents. She has not articulated a clear platform or taken a highly visible role during the nation’s current economic crisis.

Others respected for competence and integrity who could one day succeed Suharto include Amien Rais, 53, chairman of the Muhammadiyah, one of Indonesia’s two largest Muslim groups, and Emil Salim, 67, a U.S.-trained economist and former environment minister. Both, like Megawati, are reluctant to put protesters on the streets for fear that rallies would lead to bloodshed.

Despite the absence of a viable opposition, Western and Asian diplomats do not discount the possibility, or even the likelihood, of limited social unrest if the economy continues to worsen, driving up unemployment and prices. Embassies and foreign companies already have put in place plans to evacuate their personnel in the event of major violence.

The middle class stands to lose the most as a generation’s worth of national growth comes to a crashing halt. Middle-class Indonesians have never taken to the streets, as did their counterparts in the Philippines, but many are struck by the irony that history is repeating itself: Indonesia has fallen into the same economic and political disrepair that enabled Suharto to justify taking over for the deposed Sukarno.

The national currency, the rupiah, was hardly worth the paper it was printed on then. Foreign reserves were dangerously low, and investors had lost confidence in Indonesia’s ability to recover without political and economic reform. Foreign debts were soaring, and exports were insufficient to meet interest payments.

“Human rights have practically disappeared,” Suharto lamented in a 1966 speech that he could well have given last week. “The law offers almost no guarantee or protection. . . . Power is centered absolutely in one hand, that of head of state. The nation’s wealth has been used for personal gain and squandered on flashy projects that have destroyed the economy.”

* VOTE OF CONFIDENCE: Thailand’s prime minister is confident Indonesia will make right moves. D1