China Moving Toward New Era of Leadership

Slowly but steadily, the world’s last major Communist regime appears to be distancing itself from the age of great personalities--Mao Tse-tung, Chou En-lai and Deng Xiaoping--who essentially ruled until they died.

During the first 40 years of Communist government here, beginning in 1949, political change was ushered in mainly by death or party purges.

But in their place, the country’s much less charismatic current group of leaders has established rules and institutions for a more orderly transfer of power, including mandatory retirement ages and term limits for Cabinet jobs.

The latest step in the meticulously choreographed political realignment came Tuesday, when China’s economic chief, Zhu Rongji, 69, was elected premier, replacing outgoing head of government Li Peng. Li, also 69 and considered a political hard-liner, was selected chairman of the National People’s Congress on Monday amid a fair smattering of dissenting votes from the nearly 3,000 “people’s delegates” from across China.

The highlight of the two-week session, which concludes Thursday, was the installation of the reform-minded Zhu.

But just as significant as Zhu’s elevation to premier, at least in terms of emerging Chinese political institutions, was the orderly way that his predecessor departed, albeit to another important job.

When Li stepped down this week, it was on the basis of a 1980 law that limits the premier to two consecutive five-year terms. This makes him the first Chinese premier to leave office because of statutory restrictions.

China’s first premier, the erudite revolutionary Chou En-lai, held the position from 1949 until his death in 1976. His successor, Hua Guofeng, was purged in 1980. The next premier, reformer Zhao Ziyang, gave up the premiership in 1987 to become general secretary of the Communist Party. Zhao was purged in 1989 after he sympathized with student demonstrators during the Tiananmen Square democracy movement.

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Also Monday, China’s top leader, Jiang Zemin, was reconfirmed as president. Jiang--at 72 the oldest politician in the ranks of a leadership once dominated by men in their 70s and 80s--also retains his other powerful titles: general secretary of the Communist Party and chairman of the Central Military Commission.

Meanwhile, in a move that some diplomats and political analysts see as preparation for an orderly political transition early next century, Hu Jintao, 55, the party elite’s youngest member, was given the previously insignificant job of vice president--prompting speculation that he is being groomed to replace Jiang as chief of state.

“There is some evidence,” said a Western diplomat here, “that Hu Jintao is being prepared to move in behind Jiang. Jiang himself has hinted on several occasions that he will step down by the time of the next party congress in 2002.”

Xu Jiatun, a former senior Communist Party leader who now lives in Orange County, sees this as one possible explanation for Hu’s appointment as vice president.

“We can’t discount that possibility,” Xu said in a telephone interview. “But we’ll have to see if Jiang wants to step down. He may want to step down, or he may want to pull strings from behind the scenes. There is another reckoning that he doesn’t regard Hu Jintao very highly.”

By moving Hu to the traditionally powerless post of vice president, Xu explained, the Chinese president could be attempting to marginalize a political prodigy and potential rival who has served in recent years at the head of the party secretariat, managing the party’s internal affairs and personnel arrangements.

A native of the central province of Anhui, Hu studied hydroelectric engineering at Beijing’s prestigious Qinghua University. He joined the Communist Party in 1964. At age 39, he became the youngest member of the party’s Central Committee. He built a strong power base among younger party members by serving as president of the Central Party School.

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The first indication that China was moving toward a more systematic method of transferring power occurred at the 15th Party Congress here in September, when Qiao Shi, 74, the outgoing chairman of the National People’s Congress, was dropped from the seven-member standing committee of the Politburo.

The explanation for Qiao’s dismissal was that he had surpassed the party’s mandatory retirement age of 70. Although the late Deng Xiaoping, who died in February 1997 at the age of 92, had long publicly advocated mandatory retirement ages for party leaders, such a policy had never been implemented successfully until last year.

“After Deng,” ex-party official Xu said, “Jiang Zemin took the initiative in arranging the so-called leaders for the next century. Jiang’s strategy has been to use age as a delineation, arrange compromises between party factions on the political left, right and center, and placate and co-opt both senior and junior officials. I would say his strategy has been employed quite successfully.”

As party chief, Jiang was exempted from the age limitation. The move was made easier because the two men tapped for promotion, Zhu and Li, have not yet crossed the age line for retirement.

Political observers here say the true test of the policy will not come until the next party congress, in 2002. At that time, virtually the entire top rank of China’s leaders, with the exception of Hu and fellow Politburo member Li Ruihuan, will have passed retirement age.