Where Wave of Students Will Hit
Although much has been made about how colleges and universities in California are unprepared for a “tidal wave” of students moving through the school system, institutions in other states could be even more swamped by the children of baby boomers. Forecasters expect this “baby boom echo” to peak by 2008, with high school graduating classes hitting 3.2 million. That’s an even higher than the boomer’s peak of 3.1 million in 1977. Graduating classes dropped to 2.5 million in the early 1990s. Sunbelt states can expect the biggest increases, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.
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State 1996 2008 % change Alabama 41,921 45,709 9 Alaska 6,175 7,409 20 Arizona 33,232 53,281 57 Arkansas 26,257 30,232 15 California 286,069 395,761 38 Colorado 34,686 46,819 35 Connecticut 31,394 43,180 38 Delaware 7,075 9,141 29 D.C. 3,677 3,500 -5 Florida 102,448 154,314 51 Georgia 66,071 99,729 51 Hawaii 12,441 15,564 25 Idaho 15,139 17,367 15 Illinois 119,146 145,319 22 Indiana 62,430 69,368 11 Iowa 33,797 35,671 6 Kansas 27,052 30,882 14 Kentucky 39,638 43,142 9 Louisiana 44,195 43,628 -1 Maine 13,999 16,052 15 Maryland 48,257 67,949 41 Massachusetts 58,580 74,628 27 Michigan 94,264 119,176 26 Minnesota 53,487 65,137 22 Mississippi 26,597 28,185 6 Missouri 54,721 63,952 17 Montana 10,594 11,559 9 Nebraska 19,643 22,277 13 Nevada 10,771 22,761 111 New Hampshire 11,662 16,595 42 New Jersey 78,762 102,623 30 New Mexico 16,659 19,239 15 New York 159,481 199,064 25 North Carolina 60,042 83,740 39 North Dakota 8,442 7,618 -10 Ohio 120,432 133,018 10 Oklahoma 34,482 37,447 9 Oregon 28,583 37,037 30 Pennsylvania 122,610 145,112 18 Rhode Island 8,978 11,611 29 South Carolina 34,933 42,368 21 South Dakota 9,099 9,821 8 Tennessee 49,858 64,371 29 Texas 184,363 229,364 24 Utah 28,897 31,725 10 Vermont 6,356 7,798 23 Virginia 64,524 84,381 31 Washington 47,727 66,408 39 West Virginia 21,166 18,462 -13 Wisconsin 57,706 66,319 15 Wyoming 5,938 5,693 -4 United States 2,542,547 3,200,506 26
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Source: Knocking at the College Door; Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race / Ethnicity 1996-2012, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education