May Sprinkles Likely to Sink Rainfall Records

The moisture of May might accomplish today what the floods of February could not--wash away all-time rainfall records in Simi Valley, Camarillo, Ventura and Port Hueneme.

And while the weekend rainfall of less than an inch was barely enough to wet the pavement in many Ventura County communities, it proved sufficient in El Rio to break the previous seasonal rainfall record of 33.36 inches set in 1978.

Indeed, the smattering of 0.55 of an inch of rain since Saturday means El Rio joins seven other county locales--Moorpark, Santa Paula, Fillmore, Saticoy, Oak View, Casitas Dam and the Lake Casitas Recreation Area--in setting all-time rain readings.

“We’ll probably break the records in all but about three rain stations,” said Dee Dee Taylor, a county hydrologist. “We knew this was going to be an unusual El Nino, but I don’t think anybody envisioned the volumes of rain hitting in so many places.”

Up to an inch of rain could fall in the mountains today, with mostly cloudy skies squeezing out up to half an inch elsewhere in the county, said John Sherwin, a meteorologist with WeatherData Inc., which provides forecasts for The Times.

An upper-level storm that has hovered off the coast for several days is finally expected to reach land today somewhere along the central coast.

“As it does, the moisture will increase and there will be increased shower activity,” Sherwin said. “There may be a rumble of thunder [this] afternoon, but I think that will be mainly north of Santa Barbara.”

The chance of showers will all but evaporate by Wednesday, although skies will remain partly cloudy, he said.

Still, the minor amount of rain expected to fall could be enough to set more records.

Downtown Ventura and Simi Valley need only 0.27 of an inch to equal their all-time records, the County Government Center 0.02 of an inch and Camarillo 0.45.

This season’s El Nino has proved more ferocious than the preceding one in 1982-83, which until now had been the strongest and largest ever recorded, according to local meteorologist Terry Schaeffer, who works primarily with the agricultural industry.

Of the eight records broken so far in the county since Oct. 1, three were set in 1983.

But to the surprise of county hydrologist Taylor, this winter’s El Nino is also challenging older records. The records of Port Hueneme, downtown Ventura and the County Government Center were all set in 1941.

“I expected it to be a wet year, but I didn’t think it would break a record one like ’78 or ‘41,” Taylor said. “Those were humdingers.”

Moreover, Santa Barbara has pulled to within a quick drizzle--just 0.01 of an inch--of its record set in 1867, according to the National Weather Service.

Of course, while many farmers are undoubtedly pleased with this year’s liquid bounty, the property owners who have suffered damage are likely to disagree, Taylor noted.

“It’s motherhood and apple pie,” she said of the rain. “It’s hard to get mad at a wet year, except when it comes in a hard storm and does quite a bit of damage.”

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County Rainfall Totals

Here are rainfall figures for the past year. Oct. 1 is the start of the official rain year. Also shown are the maximum rainfall amounts and the year in which they occurred. The El Nino condition in the Pacific Ocean has resulted in eight new records in the county this year, with five other locations within an inch of exceeding their all-time marks. The last El Nino, in 1983, produced three of the record rainfall amounts exceeded this year.

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24-hour Normal rain to Rainfall Percent of Record rainfall 8 a.m. since normal Record annual Location to date Monday Oct. 1 rainfall year rainfall Camarillo 12.78 0.20 32.98 258% 1941 33.43 Casitas Dam 22.63 0.20 55.79 247% 1998 55.79 Casitas 22.44 0.15 52.36 233% 1998 52.36 Rec. Center El Rio 14.56 0.46 36.80 253% 1998 36.80 Fillmore 18.10 0.20 41.06 227% 1998 41.06 Matilija Dam 25.95 0.40 59.02 227% 1969 70.04 Moorpark 14.22 0.12 32.68 230% 1998 32.68 Oak View 21.56 0.19 50.49 234% 1998 50.49 Ojai 20.67 0.21 45.13 218% 1978 48.60 Upper Ojai 22.75 0.34 49.55 218% 1969 56.58 Oxnard 14.09 0.30 34.92 248% 1941 38.17 Piru 16.62 0.08 35.69 215% 1983 40.36 Port 13.62 0.40 32.44 238% 1941 32.99 Hueneme Santa Paula 16.93 0.33 38.57 228% 1998 38.57 Saticoy 15.17 0.36 42.25 279% 1998 42.25 Simi Valley 13.91 0.30 34.79 250% 1983 35.06 Thousand 14.91 0.15 31.23 209% 1983 32.75 Oaks Ventura 13.91 0.19 36.44 262% 1941 36.71 Ventura 15.51 0.31 39.93 257% 1941 39.95 Govt. Center

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Source: Ventura County Flood Control District