A Message to Beijing From the Ballot Box

Tung Chee-hwa, Hong Kong’s chief executive, had hearty congratulations and a few gentle “I told you so’s” after voters turned out in record numbers this week in the first elections under Chinese rule.

He pointed out that the 53.3% turnout was much higher than in any elections held under the British, who returned the territory in July; a more democratic legislature had replaced a handpicked body within a year, as he had pledged; and Beijing had not meddled at all.

But Hong Kong’s citizens, who braved flash floods Sunday to return banished opposition forces to office, had a message for Tung as well: They want more of a say in the way Hong Kong is run. And they want it now.

The Democrats, who secured 13 seats in the 60-seat Legislative Council, have long been demanding full democracy for Hong Kong, where the chief executive and two-thirds of the legislature are still chosen by small special-interest groups. But now, even Tung’s most conservative allies are beginning to sway, threatening to leave him behind.

The territory’s mini-constitution, the Basic Law, says a fully elected legislature will have to wait until after 2007. Tung said recently that it could be even longer.

Tung insisted after the elections that Hong Kong would stick to its slow-paced plan. But surprise calls to review that plan from Beijing’s strongest supporters in Hong Kong are heightening the pressure for change.

Tsang Yok-sing, chairman of Hong Kong’s biggest pro-Beijing party, said accelerating the pace of democratization is “highly possible.”

“If there is consensus among Hong Kong people that we should speed up the process,” he said, “then [the party] would support it.”

The process of amending the Basic Law to allow more-democratic elections is complicated. Even if the rival parties in the legislature agreed, they must have Tung’s consent for any bill that changes the structure of the government. Then Tung must pass it on to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress in Beijing for approval.

Lawyer Martin Lee, Hong Kong’s bespectacled champion of democracy who regained his legislative seat, complained this week that there were so many safeguards against change built into the system, “it’s like having sex with four condoms.”

Beijing’s official mouthpiece here, the Wen Wei Po, derided the push for full democracy, saying that Hong Kong should focus on jump-starting its economy instead. “If legislators move against the Basic Law,” an editorial in the newspaper warned, “they will not accomplish anything.”

While Tsang, who often represents Beijing’s interests in Hong Kong, acknowledged that “China is a long way away from party politics,” he did not rule out more democracy here--or on the mainland.

“I hope that China will learn that democratic elections . . . do not necessarily lead to chaos, do not necessarily lead to confrontation between the elected assembly and the government, do not necessarily make political parties adopt a shortsighted populist line,” he said.

But democratic elections will make Tung’s job a lot harder as he faces a credible opposition for the first time in his 11-month-old term.

“You could call it a revenge vote,” said Michael DeGolyer, the director of the Hong Kong Transition Project, which for a decade has been tracking the territory’s integration with China. “Hong Kong people didn’t like the lap-dog legislature forced on them in 1997, and they wanted to have a watchdog again.”

The current electoral system, devised to keep any group from controlling the legislature, has led to bizarre results. Lee, one of the territory’s most popular politicians, received 143,843 votes, but he could be sitting next to a legislator who secured his seat in the legislature with only 25 votes, or an uncontested banker who did not need any votes at all.

“[Hong Kong’s people] have given us an absolute mandate to press for more democracy, not according to the snail’s pace set out in the Basic Law, but to move forward,” Lee said this week.

If Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing forces can find rare common ground with the democratic camp over populist issues, Tung could have a difficult time, analysts say.

“He’s going to have to stop being an administrator and start being a leader,” political scientist DeGolyer said. “If he blocks moves on popular concerns like welfare, he could face a backlash from his traditional supporters.”