Insurance Against Famine

One remarkable fact in the terrible history of famine is that no substantial famine has ever occurred in a country with a democratic form of government and a relatively free press. They have occurred in ancient kingdoms and in contemporary authoritarian societies, in primitive tribal communities and in modern technocratic dictatorships, in colonial economies governed by imperialists and in newly independent countries run by despotic national leaders or by intolerant single parties. But famines have never afflicted any country that is independent, holds regular elections, has opposition parties and permits newspapers to question the wisdom of government policies.

Consider China. Even before the recent economic reforms, China had been much more successful than India in economic development. The average life expectancy, for example, rose in China much more than it did in India. Well before the reforms of 1979, it had reached something like the high figure--nearly 70 years at birth--that is quoted now. Yet China was not able to prevent famine. It is estimated that the Chinese famines of 1958-61 killed close to 30 million people--10 times more than the 1943 famine in British India.

The so-called “Great Leap Forward” initiated in the late 1950s was a massive failure, but the Chinese government continued to pursue much the same disastrous policies for three more years. It is hard to imagine that this could have happened in a country that goes to the polls regularly and has an independent press.

The lack of a free system of news distribution misled even the government itself. It believed its own propaganda and the rosy reports of local party officials. Indeed, there is evidence that just as the famine was moving toward its peak, Chinese authorities mistakenly believed that they had 100 million more metric tons of grain than they actually did.

These issues remain relevant in China today. Since the economic reforms of 1979, official Chinese policies have been based on the acknowledgment of the importance of economic incentives without a similar acknowledgment of the importance of political incentives. When things go reasonably well, the disciplinary role of democracy might not be greatly missed; but when big policy mistakes are made, this lacuna can be disastrous.