German Voters Check Wallets

Whichever party Germans choose in their Sept. 27 national elections, the bilateral relationship between Germany and the United States won’t shift much. Whether voters decide to stick with longtime incumbent Chancellor Helmut Kohl or venture for change with the Social Democrat candidate, Gerhard Schroeder, the political and economic alliance between Washington and Berlin will remain firm. Both nations draw inestimable benefit from their ties.

A stable Germany is an anchor of global order, particularly given the weight of the deutsch mark in Europe’s move to a common currency. How to maintain stability, and which of the front-runners can best bring the ship ashore, is the issue.

There is widespread anxiety among Germans. Those who live in what used to be West Germany are unhappy with the burdensome cost of the reunification with the formerly Communist east. Erstwhile East Germans complain that they have not been able to achieve the higher standard of living they thought would come automatically with reunification in 1990.

Underlying the shared worry is an economy seen as rigid and outdated. Indicators of the problem are unemployment hovering at 10%, tax brackets that claim up to 50% of income and a swollen welfare state exemplified by fat pension plans and overly generous sick pay.

The obvious question for voters is how, after 16 years in office, Kohl can change a system he helped to build. An equally good question is how a liberal Social Democrat like Schroeder can effect reforms while maintaining the support of those who benefit from public generosity.

If none of the traditional parties are able to build coalitions that deliver a workable parliamentary majority, a radical change in leadership might be in prospect. In the wings is a new generation of politicians who describe themselves as fiscal conservatives with a liberal social agenda. These men and women say they are prepared to break eggs to achieve the hard economic reforms that have taken place in the United States, Britain and other countries. Pain might be inescapable.