U.S.-Libya Deal Designed as Message to Rogue States on Redemption

The long-awaited surrender of two Libyans charged in the bombing of Pan Am 103 will be held out as an example to the world of how rogue states can win political redemption if they comply with international law, U.S. officials said.

Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi agreed to turn over the suspects after receiving assurances from Washington that it is prepared to improve diplomatic relations with Libya after a 20-year hiatus, the officials said. The Clinton administration also told Kadafi that it has no hidden agenda in seeking to put the two men on trial before Scottish judges in the Netherlands and will not use the case to try to destabilize his regime.

“Negotiations have been about more than just the two suspects. Our focus has also been about changing the tension in U.S.-Libya relations and setting up a new precedent for the post-Cold War world,” a senior administration official said Monday.

The main reason Kadafi had not turned over the suspects in the 1988 bombing over Lockerbie, Scotland, until now, U.S. officials believe, was his fear that they might describe a chain of command that would lead to him.

The deal, which culminates six months of protracted mediation by the United Nations, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, also is designed to send a pointed message to Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

“There are two messages here,” the senior official said. “One is that sanctions work. They can lead to a change in behavior of a rogue state. The second message is that cooperation with the U.N. can lead to the lifting of sanctions.”

Since its 1990 invasion of Kuwait, Iraq has endured the toughest sanctions ever imposed on a nation, while Yugoslavia has faced sanctions for its actions in Bosnia-Herzegovina earlier this decade and, now, in the Yugoslav region of Kosovo.

The surrender of the two Libyans represents a sorely needed success for U.S. counter-terrorism policy. Over the past three administrations, Washington has increasingly emphasized a “law-and-order” approach under which U.S. jurisdiction to act overseas has been expanded and international punitive actions have been used to squeeze what the U.S. views as rogue governments that support extremist groups.

“It’s a victory for patience and persistence. It’s a tremendous reward for U.S. counter-terrorism policy,” said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert and director of the Rand Corp.’s Washington office. “It may not produce quick results, but it sends a powerful message that the U.S. will do anything in its power and will be ceaseless in its efforts to bring the perpetrators of these incidents to justice.”

In recent years, that policy has led to FBI operations with law enforcement authorities in other nations to nab such terrorists as Ramzi Ahmed Yousef, the World Trade Center bomber who was taken from Pakistan to New York for trial and convicted in 1997.

In terms of impact, the two Libyans are important catches because they account for such a great loss of American lives. Of the 270 deaths in the 1988 terrorist incident, 189 were of Americans.

After seven years of U.N. sanctions, Kadafi finally succumbed to the international body’s demands because of the combination of economic constraints and strong diplomatic pressure, including personal intervention by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, South African President Nelson Mandela, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. Prince Bandar ibn Sultan.

“He realized if he didn’t turn them over he’d be totally isolated,” the senior official said.

The United States has made clear, however, that it is not prepared to follow through on its own incentives--improving diplomatic relations, taking Libya off the official list of terrorist states and lifting separate U.S. sanctions--until Libya has complied with all the provisions of U.N. resolutions on Libya. They include a formal renunciation of all terrorism and support of extremist groups, payment of compensation to families of the Pan Am victims, and full cooperation at the trial of the two alleged Libyan intelligence agents, Abdel Basset Ali Megrahi and Lamen Khalifa Fhimah.

“Renouncing terrorism is the easiest part,” the senior Clinton administration official said. “We’re going to judge the whole gambit of Libyan behavior. This is a major step in the right direction that’s long overdue, but other steps must follow.”

The first critical period of review will cover the next 90 days, when U.N. sanctions will be suspended but not formally lifted. After three months, Annan will report to the Security Council on Libya’s cooperation.

But U.S. officials say big policy shifts will have to wait until the judicial proceedings are over, and initial estimates suggest that with defense delays, the trial may not begin for a year. Throughout that time, Libya’s activities will be closely monitored by U.S. intelligence for communication with and support for extremist groups in the Mideast and Europe.

For years, Kadafi’s regime hosted Abu Nidal, a renegade Palestinian terrorist who reportedly moved last year to Egypt and then Iraq. Kadafi’s regime also has aided the Irish Republican Army.

The most dramatic U.S. shift would be diplomatic rapprochement. Relations were severed in December 1979, after Libyan mobs--undeterred by police--attacked and burned down the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli, the Libyan capital. The incident followed the Iranian takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and an arson attack on the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, Pakistan. Shortly afterward, Washington declared Libya a state sponsor of terrorism, and it has been on the list ever since.

Tension escalated again when Washington charged Kadafi’s regime with orchestrating the April 1986 bombing of a West Berlin disco frequented by U.S. servicemen. The explosion killed three people, including two U.S. soldiers. The Ronald Reagan administration responded by bombing Tripoli and the city of Benghazi, killing 38 people, including Kadafi’s adopted daughter.

Washington’s willingness to review and potentially improve its relations with Tripoli do not signal a fundamental change in its view of Kadafi, a State Department official said.

“It doesn’t mean we endorse Kadafi, but we’re strong enough to have other options,” the official said. “The Libyans are not really much of a threat to anyone anymore. Guess what? They’re a failure.”

Although U.S. officials say they have no doubt that the two suspects are guilty, they concede that the outcome of the trial may not be a foregone conclusion.

“There are risks in trials, and we’ve understood that since 1991, when the indictments were brought down,” said the State Department official.

Added the senior administration official: “Any time you prosecute a crime 10 years after it happened, it’s going to be tricky.”