County’s Shining Payroll Picture Gets Brighter Still

Saying that the powerful domestic economy easily offset the effects of the Asian financial crisis, university economists Thursday raised their already glowing economic assessment of Southern California in general and Orange County in particular.

Citing a “constant stream of recent upbeat news,” Cal State Fullerton economist Anil Puri said the U.S. expansion, entering its ninth year, had fired up demand in Orange County’s high-tech manufacturing industries.

That was a major factor in payroll growth of 5.4% in the county last year--66,000 new jobs, compared with Puri’s estimate of 47,000, or 3.8% growth, made last October.

New figures from the state Employment Development Department show Orange County accounted for more than a third of the 181,000 jobs added last year in the six-county Southern California region. Los Angeles County, which accounts for 62% of the region’s total employment, added 75,400 jobs; Riverside and San Bernardino counties’ payrolls rose by 32,400.

Orange County’s job growth rate “is the largest of any county in California,” Puri said. “It’s impressive by any historical standards. If these EDD numbers are correct--and I have no reason to doubt them--it’s very good news for the county.”

Orange County manufacturers have been benefiting from the nationwide boom, reporting improved sales and production and increased hiring in almost every major segment, from computers and electronic equipment to industrial machinery, according to a new survey by Chapman University economist Raymond Sfeir.

The jump follows a slump in the fourth quarter last year that local manufacturers said reflected the effect of the Asian economic crunch. Sfeir said the first-quarter improvement seems to have largely domestic roots.

Other star sectors of Orange County’s economy include retail, and business and management services--the legal, accounting, financial and software experts that keep the high-tech industries humming.

But new jobs were added throughout the economy, including a multibillion-dollar construction boom in Anaheim, where streets, freeways and infrastructure are being expanded as Walt Disney Co. builds a new theme park and the Convention Center is expanded.

“It’s a small county compared to L.A., so something like that can make a big difference,” Puri said.

When Puri issued his 1999 forecast last October, he predicted that employment growth for Southern California would slow from 2.5% in 1998 to 1.9% this year.

Six months later, it looks as though the number of jobs will grow at a 2.2% rate this year in Southern California, he said. And for Orange County, Puri revised the 1999 job growth estimate from 2.3% to 3.2%--well below last year’s blistering 5.4% growth, but still “surprisingly robust,” he said.

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Job Machine

Orange County’s job engine continued to outperform the rest of Southern California last year, generating 66,000 new positions. Several sectors shared in the job growth. Nonfarm payroll job growth:

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Orange Southern County California 1994 1.0% 0.5% 1995 2.2% 1.7% 1996 2.8% 1.7% 1997 3.8% 2.9% 1998 5.4% 2.9%

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Sector Stars

Manufacturing (total): 6.4%

Aircraft/parts: 22.1%

Communications equipment: 18.8%

Finance: 14.8%

Retail building materials sales: 11.9%

Business services: 9.9%

Construction (total): 9.0%

Source: Cal State Fullerton