How King Hussein Rocked the Boat

King Hussein’s decision to appoint his eldest son, Abdullah, as crown prince sent shock waves through the world in a way that even he couldn’t have anticipated--a measure of the importance the stability of this tiny kingdom with no natural resources has to the rest of the world.

The transition of power from Hussein’s younger brother, Hassan--designated heir for the past 34 years--to Abdullah took place smoothly with the only anxious noises coming from abroad. What worried the foreign media and officials was that in a region of political turmoil and at a critical time--the upcoming Israeli elections, the possibility of a declaration of a Palestinian state and the continuing Iraq saga--Hussein disturbed what is widely perceived as an oasis of stability. Jordan’s role as a buffer state between such predatory neighbors as Israel, Iraq and Syria is the reason its stability is of international concern, and Abdullah is now another unknown variable in this complicated equation.

Jordan is a developing country in need of two things: real economic reform and political maturity. It is a culture where family links and tribal affiliations are of overriding concern, often to the detriment of the country as a whole. The majority of the population--estimates go as high as 70%--is Palestinian, who since 1970 have had little say in the political life of the country and no involvement in the army and the public sector whatsoever but who dominate the private sector. Yet it is also a country where institutions, however much in their infancy they may be, contribute to the running of the country: the parliament, the army, the secret service and the judiciary. The most powerful of these is the Hashemite family itself, which, unlike when King Hussein took power, is now large, and, publicly at least, stands united behind Abdullah.

Hassan has pledged his allegiance to the new crown prince, and perhaps more significantly, Rashid, Hassan’s eldest son, who, had there been no change, would have likely found himself in Abdullah’s position, is now often to be seen by his cousin’s side. A military man, Abdullah is widely seen as having the undivided loyalty of the army, which is no mean boon.

But the army is composed only of East Bank Jordanians. The real challenge is in economic reform to make the economy less dependent on foreign aid and in giving Palestinians more say in decision-making. Liberalizing the economy, however, will mean the loss of public sector jobs, and East Bank Jordanians must not be seen to lose out. This was where Hassan’s forte rested, and much will depend upon the people Abdullah surrounds himself with. Most of the king’s men are from the East Bank establishment and may have no interest in rocking the boat. Hassan created his own power base, which was mostly technocratic--the right thing for the country, but perhaps the wrong thing for Hassan; trying to do too much too soon was likely one of the major reasons for his downfall. Nevertheless, his role could become crucial to Abdullah, who, in the event of his father’s death will need to choose his advisors carefully.

Next to the loyalty of the army, Abdullah’s greatest asset may in fact be what critics trumpet as his weakness: his youth. The greatest change that is likely to occur in Jordan is generational. There is a large younger generation that is very well-educated and has grown up with an urban lifestyle and less emphasis on tribal traditions. This is Abdullah’s generation. If this generation can be successfully utilized and motivated, it may just be the catalyst for the next phase of the modernization of Jordan and a step on the road to what, publicly, is Hussein’s vision for the country: a constitutional monarchy a la Britain.

Nobody in Jordan wants to turn the country into an Iraq or a Syria. The benefits of stability and relative freedoms have for too long been available to Jordanians, and that is a major reason for the population’s loyalty to King Hussein. If the family stays united, the country will back it.

There are other pressing problems for Jordan--an annual population growth that exceeds its economic growth, severe water shortages--but Jordan’s fate is inextricable from the region’s: an acceptable settlement for the Palestinians, and the eventual lifting of the sanctions on Iraq from which Jordan gets all its oil and which, before the Gulf War, was Jordan’s single largest bilateral trade partner.

In this respect, Jordan’s hopes paradoxically lie in its location. It is the gateway to Israel and for Israel to the Arab markets; stability and peace could see a major boom in trade. International support has been forthcoming, most notably from Saudi Arabia (a relationship the young crown prince has already shown himself eager to nurture) and the U.S., which has guaranteed to shore up the economy in case of a run on the dollar. All this will help keep Jordan stable in the short run, but essentially Jordan’s stability is decided not in Jordan but by what happens around it.