Succession Drama Likely to Play Again in Arab World

The elevation of 37-year-old Crown Prince Abdullah to succeed his father, Hussein, on the throne of Jordan is a stark reminder to the band of geriatric monarchs, emirs and presidents-for-life now in command of most Arab countries to put their houses in order.

After having clung to office for two, three or even four decades, Arab rulers from the Persian Gulf to Morocco must face the inevitable: The time to pass the torch to a new generation is fast approaching.

King Hussein was the first of the current generation of leaders in the Arab world to pass away. The monarch’s surprise decision, two weeks before his death, to confer his kingdom upon his eldest son rather than his brother Hassan was the first in a chain of succession dramas likely to play out across the Middle East in the next few years.

“One can see an inevitable change coming,” said Maher Othman, a London-based Arab commentator. “Whether for the better or worse, we don’t know.”

In most cases, those in line to take over will be baby boomers with a different outlook from their elders, young men (there are no prospective female rulers) who cannot remember the anti-colonial struggle, who have never known a Middle East without Israel and who have studied and traveled abroad and imbibed Western notions about democracy, human rights and economic management.

In Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority, to name a few, elderly helmsmen cling to control as the Arab world drifts reluctantly into the 21st century. Most of the rulers are about 70. Even the once-boyish revolutionary Moammar Kadafi is pushing 60. And with each change in regime, there will be trepidation about the region’s stability, simply because people do not know what to expect.

“The future of the region under the new, young leaders will be different,” Abdullah himself predicted in one interview last week. The new Arab generation seeks “to open a new page.”

Elderly Are Esteemed in Mideast Culture

Why does the region have so many elderly, long-serving rulers? Part of the explanation is cultural. Unlike in the youth-obsessed West, in Arab countries the elderly are esteemed, and an emir or king only gains stature with his years. Unless there is an exceptional cause for his removal, such as insanity, physical incapacity or extreme dereliction of duty, a leader can expect to rule until his death.

That was always true in the tribal-based monarchies, and the same standard seems to apply in the modern Arab states that deem themselves republics. Their leaders have used all means, fair or foul, to stay in power, and on the whole the people have gone along, often preferring stability and a ruler they know to the uncertainty of whoever might follow.

Nevertheless, a wave of changes is now imminent, said Emad Eldin Adib, an Egyptian who edits the Arabic-language business daily Alam el Youm. “Some of the reasons are biological, due to the deteriorating health of leaders,” he said. “But also there will be changes because of the new millennium coming, and because we have to have leaders compatible to this new world.”

Some Arab leaders, such as Syrian President Hafez Assad and Libya’s Kadafi, already are grappling with the question of transition by advancing their sons as likely successors who would carry on their policies and protect their legacies.

Others, like Yasser Arafat, 69 and in visibly ill health, and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, approaching his 71st birthday, have avoided answering the question of who will come after them.

Jordan’s Abdullah in many ways epitomizes the generation in waiting. A Western-educated sportsman and military officer who is at ease in English, he has befriended fellow Arab royals throughout the Gulf--peers likely to take control in their own countries one day.

“He was raised in Europe and the United States, so I think he might bring in more liberal ideas, more democracy,” said Mohammed Abdul Monein, editor of the popular Egyptian paper Rose el Youssef. “This may be what King Hussein had in mind.”

But Ayman Salah, a 20-something director for Egypt’s satellite Nile TV station, believes the significance of the generational shift has been overemphasized. He does not expect Arab states to make major changes in policy even after the new generation takes over.

“The style will be different, bearing in mind that the younger generation is more open to the West than the current generation,” Salah said. “However, the major policies of the region” will stay “because they are supported by a majority of the people, young and old.”

Before Abdullah, only in the small Gulf emirate of Qatar had the younger generation achieved power. Since the then-45-year-old Sheik Hamad ibn Khalifa al Thani pushed out his father as emir two years ago, he has shaken things up. A Qatari TV station, Al Jezirah, has revolutionized public discourse in the Arab world by allowing sharp, uncensored debate about Arab issues to be beamed into every Arab home. And Qatar is preparing for the Gulf’s first free elections in which both men and women will be allowed to vote.

Analysts See Chance for Dynamism

As the old actors leave the stage, some analysts see an opportunity for the region to become more dynamic and adaptable. But others fear that the transitions themselves could lead to instability and bloodshed.

The successions in Syria and Iraq could be the most problematic. Assad, 69 next month, is marking his 28th year in office and has maintained power in spite of belonging to a small religious minority, the Alawites. There is a risk that Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority may attempt to take back power from the Alawites whenever he goes, in spite of Assad’s apparent wish to install his son.

Although Saddam Hussein is only 61, he is also under a lot of pressure. If he dies or is removed in a coup, many analysts fear a blood bath in Iraq because of the country’s violent history and the various ethnic and political factions that would be vying to take control and to settle old scores. Some in the region think Iraq itself could be shattered, splintering into Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite sectors.

Smoother transitions are expected in the Gulf states, where well-established custom governs succession. By law and tradition, the eldest son or brother succeeds when the ruler becomes incapacitated. In Saudi Arabia, where the throne is passed from brother to brother, this process already has begun. King Fahd, weakened since a 1995 stroke, has ceded most of his work to his half brother Abdullah, the crown prince.

The sheer longevity in office of the Arab rulers means that many people cannot remember any other ruler than the one they have. Younger generations, meanwhile, complain that they have been shut out of exercising leadership and that fresh people with fresh ideas should be given an opportunity.

“I call it the phenomenon of the selfish generation,” said Egyptian analyst Nabil Abdul Fattah, speaking of the Arab world’s aging rulers. “They have shunned younger people. . . . Any emerging talent they have nipped in the bud.”

King Hussein of Jordan was the longest in power, nearly half a century, but he was not unique.

Region’s Rulers Are of Long Standing

Morocco’s King Hassan II, nearing 70, has ruled for 38 years. Sheik Zayed ibn Sultan al Nuhayyan, president of the United Arab Emirates, was born in 1923 and has ruled for 27 years. Kuwait’s emir, Sheik Jabbar al Ahmed al Sabah, 70, has held power for 23 years. Even the younger Arab leaders have already held their positions far longer than their counterparts in Europe or the United States. Kadafi is 56, but he has been the absolute power in Libya for nearly 30 years. Oman’s Sultan Kaboos ibn Said, 56, succeeded his father 28 years ago. Tunisia’s president, Gen. Zine el Abidine ben Ali, 62, has governed for more than 11 years.

Adib, the editor, said the man in the street is ready to see some of these leaders go. The problem is not with the Arab public, he said, it’s with “the people who have been in the chair for so long--they don’t want to change.”

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Daniszewski was recently on assignment in Tehran. Times researcher Aline Kazandjian in Cairo contributed to this report.