An Important Election in Iran

Twenty years after an Islamic revolution replaced its 2,500-year-old monarchy with repressive theocratic rule, Iran is undergoing a quiet but intense struggle between reformists and traditionalists. Leading the reform movement is President Mohammad Khatami, elected nearly two years ago on his pledge to honor the rule of law and permit greater cultural freedom. A clergyman himself, Khatami continues to pay obeisance to “our belief in supreme clerical rule.” At the same time, to the sometimes violent anger of religious conservatives, he has moderated a number of policies, including allowing a relatively freer press.

A major test of strength could come in two weeks, in local council elections provided for in the 1979 constitution but never held. Iran is a country of the young. Nearly half of its 60 million people were born after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was overthrown. To many millions, revolutionary slogans matter far less than the harsh realities of everyday life. Falling oil prices have slashed Iran’s hard currency earnings and imports. Inflation and unemployment are high. Iran can’t provide the1 million new jobs a year its growing population requires. Fairly conducted council elections could lead to expanded reform efforts.

Khatami has invited dialogue with the West, though Iran retains its animosity toward America and Israel. Washington is not averse to improving relations, though first it wants Iran to renounce any intention to build nuclear weapons and end its unacknowledged support for terrorism. Neither is in prospect. Basic policy changes nonetheless seem inescapable. A frustrated younger generation eager for a more relaxed domestic life and an end to Iran’s international isolation will not forever cede to the clerics the unquestioned control they demand.