Nigerians Vote Amid Misgivings

Voters are electing a new parliament today that should be responsible for setting policies to put Nigeria on the path to democracy and economic stability. Yet human rights activists worry that the continent’s most populous country may be heading for domination by yet another African “big man.”

Such skepticism about the much-heralded return to civilian rule in this country of 108 million people stems from mistrust of the military, which has dominated Nigeria for most of its 38 years of independence, and suspicion that the current regime--though stating its commitment to democracy--wants to keep some control.

Local analysts say that in presidential elections scheduled for next Saturday, a week after the parliamentary vote, the military seems to be backing Olusegun Obasanjo, a general and 1970s military ruler. Obasanjo is widely expected to defeat his rival, Olu Falae, a onetime finance minister.

Critics fear victory by the former soldier would allow him to perpetuate the “big man with rubber stamp” syndrome typical of past military regimes. The general’s word would be final, and the new legislature would have little authority.

Falae’s opponents argue that electing him would be no better--that his lack of experience in governing a country as diverse and problematic as Nigeria might push him toward authoritarian policies.

Although Nigeria is one of Africa’s most resource-rich countries, widespread corruption, mismanagement and neglect under past military regimes have led to soaring inflation and a crumbling, debt-ridden economy that have forced many people into poverty.

According to the ambitious schedule worked out by the current military ruler, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, the army will have three months after the election to transfer power. The president and parliament will take office May 29.

The National Assembly will be made up of 360 members of the House of Representatives and 109 senators selected from the country’s 36 states.

Three parties that showed enough nationwide strength in previous local and governors’ elections are in the election: Obasanjo’s People’s Democratic Party, and two parties that jointly nominated Falae--the All People’s Party and Alliance for Democracy.

The People’s Democratic Party, a broad coalition of veteran politicians, is widely considered the party of the military--an estimated 46 retired generals and 106 lower-ranking officers are in its ranks. It won just over 50% in the previous local elections.

The All People’s Party, which won about 30%, is known as the party of many supporters of former military dictator Sani Abacha, who died last June. The Alliance for Democracy, which got about 20%, was formed by several pressure groups from the country’s southwest.

If, as expected, Obasanjo’s party wins the assembly elections when results emerge early next week, his critics charge that it will be easy for him to dominate.

“It is likely his word will be final, because the PDP will control the majority” in parliament, said Segun Jegede, Lagos-based director of programs and projects at the Committee for the Defense of Human Rights. “The most simple votes will be decided by simple majority . . . and people will vote partisan.”

Jegede said Obasanjo, who spent three years in jail for allegedly plotting a coup against Abacha, was the only person to be granted a pardon when he was released by the current military regime.

Others, including human rights activists, lawyers and journalists who were jailed on similar trumped-up charges, are still classified as ex-convicts and therefore barred from running for president, Jegede said.

Jegede and other activists claim that Obasanjo has received financial backing from Abubakar’s regime and from another former military ruler, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, nicknamed the “Kingmaker.”

After Obasanjo’s release from prison, Babangida publicly declared him the key to Nigeria’s future.

Abdul Oroh, executive director of the Civil Liberties Organization, charged that the military leadership “has stolen a whole lot of money, and they want somebody who can cover what they have done.”

“They want somebody who will maintain the balance, who will not rock the boat. . . . They want somebody who can protect them,” Oroh said.

Civil rights activists blamed the government for pulling the plug Wednesday on a live TV question-and-answer session with Falae, which was originally slated to be a U.S.-style debate with Obasanjo.

Obasanjo claimed that he had not been invited, and he did not go. The intended two-hour program was awkwardly cut to about 50 minutes. Critics believe that the government did not want to give Falae exposure to millions of viewers and listeners.

Abubakar, a soft-spoken career officer, was propelled to power last June after Abacha’s death. He has repeatedly insisted that he aims to establish a democracy.

Election monitors say the way to ensure that Nigeria turns away from the tradition of dominance by a single leader is the election of a strong parliament with a well-organized opposition.

“We need a very intelligent, very cohesive and very assertive National Assembly, which wasn’t the case in the past,” said Clement Nwankwo, chairman of the Transitional Monitoring Group, a coalition of local election monitors.

The widespread change that Nigerians demand requires the legislature be “very strong . . . to supervise the executive and intervene in instances of bad governance and corruption that was prevalent in previous regimes,” he said.

Many average Nigerians said they simply hope for improved basics like electricity, water, schools and health care.

“We are looking for the kind of government that will restore Nigeria’s lost glory in the international community; that will put our infrastructure right,” said Austin Osagie, 40, an advertising photographer.

However, Osagie said he will not vote for parliament because he believes that the outcome already has been decided.

“Whether we like it or not,” he said, “Gen. Obasanjo is already the president of this country . . . because of the influences behind him.”