How to Sway Israeli Vote Is Palestinians’ Dilemma

It is a lesson that has not been lost on the Palestinian leadership.

During Israel’s 1996 election campaign, a series of suicide bombings played a key role in bringing Benjamin Netanyahu to power. Netanyahu, who argued that the left-of-center Labor Party-led government’s “race” to peace with the Palestinians was endangering Israel’s security, saw his poll numbers rise after the attacks and went on to become prime minister.

Now, as Israel again plunges into a campaign that will determine the future of Middle East peacemaking, the Palestinians have to figure out how best to advance their own interests in the election without appearing to do so too blatantly.

Officially, Palestinian representatives, from Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat on down, say that the May 17 Israeli election is an internal affair; they have no role in it, they say, other than to appeal to Netanyahu to move forward with the peace process.

Behind the scenes, however, Palestinian leaders are feverishly working on a strategy to influence the voting--trying, for example, to prevent violence that could scare Israelis away from a choice for further peacemaking, and weighing whether Arafat should follow through on his promise to declare statehood May 4. The date is less than two weeks before the vote.

“It is a very critical time for the Palestinians,” said Ziad abu Amr, a Palestinian legislator and political science professor. “No matter what we say, the Palestinian leadership cannot ignore these elections, and they are not ignoring them. The outcome will influence our situation for years to come.”

Already, Netanyahu has tried to co-opt the statehood issue. The Likud Party leader insists that the Palestinians will not dare to make the declaration just before the election because they will not want any resulting Israeli fears to boost his chances. And he has boasted that, because of his tough policies, “Arafat . . . thinks any alternative is better than Netanyahu.”

For more than a year, Arafat has threatened to declare Palestinian independence unilaterally May 4, the date set for the end of the five-year Oslo peace process, if a permanent deal has not been reached with Israel. In response, Netanyahu has said that such a declaration would free Israel to take drastic steps of its own, including the annexation of areas it still controls in the West Bank. Many on both sides fear that violence would be the inevitable result.

With the campaign now underway, Arafat is under growing pressure from Israel’s Labor Party, from Arab states such as Egypt and, many here believe, from the United States to put off the declaration, at least until after the election.

In recent days, Palestinian rhetoric on the issue has softened considerably, and some Arafat aides have suggested that the May 4 date is not sacred. “We are studying this issue and when to declare,” said Arafat advisor Nabil Amr. And in a speech last week to loyalists of his Fatah political faction, Arafat emphasized Palestinian aspirations but did not mention any target date.

“In the end, he will postpone the declaration in order to avoid being blamed for any possible right-wing victory in the election,” predicted Palestinian political analyst Ghassan Khatib.

But some influential Palestinians are urging Arafat to proceed with the announcement or make a decision on the issue without regard to its effect on the Israeli election.

Hatem Abdel Kader, a Palestinian legislator from Jerusalem, has long argued that the Palestinians are not actually ready for a state, that the necessary institutions and laws are not yet in place. But he defends, vigorously, their right to declare it, in May or at any other time.

“Our decision should be independent of Israeli politics,” Kader said. “We should not be concerned if the right or the left in Israel will use our decision for their benefit. We should not bet too much on Israeli parties and politics anyway.”

Others believe that Arafat, already weakened by Palestinian anger over the stalled peace process, must make good on his promise or risk losing more credibility with his people.

“He has to go for it May 4,” said Mahdi Abdul Hadi, a historian who heads an independent Palestinian research organization. “He should be strong, firm and clear, but he cannot afford not to do it. It’s his dream and that of the Palestinians. We cannot wait.”

At the same time, the countdown to the election holds the potential for violence that could affect the outcome. In 1996, as Netanyahu campaigned against Labor Prime Minister Shimon Peres, Palestinian militants carried out bombings that killed 59 Israelis and tilted the election toward Netanyahu and his promise of “peace with security.”

Speaking to reporters this week, Peres said he blames himself for not pressing Arafat to use force to rein in the militant Islamic organizations, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, that carried out the attacks. The violence cost him the election, he said.

This time, Labor Party emissaries, U.S. diplomats and many others have stressed to the Palestinians the importance of maintaining calm as the campaigning proceeds. If anti-Israeli violence escalates, it will underscore Netanyahu’s message that the Palestinians have not kept their commitments under the peace agreements. But if the Palestinians keep the situation quiet, Labor Party leader Ehud Barak--or a slew of new centrist party candidates--is expected to benefit.

But recent actions by Arafat to shore up relations with his radical opposition have left many Israelis uneasy. Two weeks ago, within days of Israel’s decision to hold an early election, Arafat freed Sheik Ahmed Yassin, the spiritual leader of Hamas, from house arrest. The Palestinian leader has also released dozens of Hamas activists arrested after a bombing in October.

Palestinian legislator Amr, an expert on Islamic groups, said he believes that the releases are part of a calculated effort by Arafat to engage the opposition in a dialogue aimed at giving him more time to make the peace process work.

“He will ask them for a few months, to see whether someone else might be elected this time instead of Netanyahu. They don’t want to be blamed, either, if he wins again,” Amr said.

Ismail abu Shanab, a Hamas political leader, said this week that the deadlocked peace process has strengthened Hamas’ belief in violent resistance as the only answer to Israel’s continuing occupation of Palestinian land.

“This shows that our strategic choice--resistance--is the right way,” Shanab said. “We should not depend on the Americans or believe that the Israelis will withdraw from our land by negotiations. This means that the political choice by the Palestinian Authority has failed. We will continue to resist.”