Auto Makers Are Finding It’s Not Easy Being ‘Green’
With gasoline costing less than bottled water and Americans buying gas-guzzling trucks in record numbers, it would seem foolhardy to suggest that the days of the internal-combustion engine are numbered.
Yet that is exactly what the world’s top auto makers are planning for.
“It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when,” said Jac Nasser, president of Ford Motor Co.
Improvements in the gasoline engine are likely to keep it as the predominant propulsion system for decades. But regulatory, political and competitive pressure to reduce tailpipe emissions further and to curtail fuel consumption is likely to increase in the next century.
California is mandating that 10% of new vehicles sold in 2003 be emission-free. Concerns about global warming are driving demands that emission of carbon dioxide--a byproduct of hydrocarbon combustion--be sharply curtailed. And some auto makers see being “green” as a way to achieve a competitive advantage.
So it’s not surprising that auto engineers are exploring a wide range of advanced technologies, including battery-powered electric vehicles, or EVs; gas- and diesel-electric hybrids; and fuel-cell cars.
Major problems must still be overcome, such as extending driving range and developing new fuels infrastructures. Most important, costs must be lowered.
“The cheapest solution wins,” said Donald Runkle, president of Delphi Energy & Engine Management Systems, a unit of General Motors Corp. Runkle sees the predicted demise of today’s engines as mostly hype.
In any case, it is too soon to determine which advanced technologies will emerge as commercially viable, so most of the big companies are hedging their bets. They are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into vehicles fueled by natural gas, ethanol and methanol, while developing electric, hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles and accessing exotic technologies such as flywheels.
Here is a brief status report on the leading technologies thought to have a shot at replacing the venerable internal-combustion engine:
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Electric Vehicles: In the early 1990s, it was believed that the electric vehicle--seen as an antidote to California’s dirty-air problem--would crowd gas-engine cars and trucks from freeways.
But advanced batteries simply weren’t ready for prime time. Even California’s technology-pushing pollution regulators acknowledged the obvious and delayed their zero-emissions mandate for five years.
Auto makers have since introduced a number of EVs, but their arrival has been met by a resounding lack of interest by consumers. GM invested $350 million in the sleek EV1 two-seater but sold fewer than 600 in two years.
The problem is largely one of limited range, long recharge times and high cost. The original EV1 used a heavy lead-acid battery pack that provided juice for less than 70 miles of driving between charges. Newer nickel-metal-hydride batteries will nearly double traveling mileage. Even more powerful lithium-ion batteries will be used on Nissan’s Altra EV wagon when it arrives this year.
But electric vehicles remain expensive. The EV1 goes for about the same as much bigger entry-level luxury cars.
The outlook is that battery-powered EVs have a future largely as niche vehicles for commercial or city commuting use. But EV technology is a key enabler for more promising hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles.
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Hybrids: As the name suggests, these systems combine two powertrains into one vehicle: a small internal-combustion engine with an electric power system.
Hybrids offer reduced emissions and high fuel economy without the range and infrastructure limitations of EVs. But using both gas and electric propulsion systems increases cost, weight and complexity.
One or both engines can be used to turn the wheels. The gas engine typically provides power for normal driving. The electric provides a boost during starting and passing and is recharged during the vehicle’s operation.
Toyota Motor Corp. is already selling a gas-electric hybrid in Japan, the Prius, which it will bring to California next year. It is selling the compact sedan for about $17,000, about half what analysts say it costs to make.
Honda Motor Co. will beat Toyota to the U.S. market when it begins selling its sporty V V two-seat gas-electric hybrid this fall. It gets 70 miles per gallon and meets California’s ultra-low-emission vehicle standards.
GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler are all pushing diesel-electric hybrids as part of a government-industry effort to develop affordable family cars that get 80 mpg. But recent regulatory restrictions on diesel fuel are a hurdle.
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Fuel Cells: The most promising advanced fuel technology is the fuel cell, a device that combines hydrogen and oxygen in a noncombustion reaction to form electricity and water vapor.
Fuel cells have the potential to increase fuel efficiency by 50% while reducing harmful emissions by 90%. Recent advances in the technology have prompted most of the major auto makers to develop prototype fuel-cell vehicles.
The cells run best when fed pure hydrogen directly. But hydrogen is difficult to store on board, and no hydrogen fueling infrastructure exists. So auto makers are looking at on-board reformers to break down gasoline or methanol to provide hydrogen. Methanol is the most likely fuel.
A major problem is economics. A fuel-cell engine system now costs about 10 times a conventional engine. Using a reformer adds cost, weight and complexity.
But auto makers are extremely optimistic. DaimlerChrysler, which has already shown three generations of workable fuel-cell vehicles, has promised to mass-produce such a car by 2004. Ford, GM and Toyota have also shown drivable fuel-cell vehicles, but it is likely to be a decade or more before significant numbers are on the road.
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Donald W. Nauss is The Times’ Detroit bureau chief. He can be reached via e-mail at don.nauss@latimes.com.
