Syria Is Willing to Make an Opportunity for Peace

The election of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak in May has injected new life into the Arab-Israeli peace process, particularly the Syrian-Israeli track, after a three-year freeze. Syrian President Hafez Assad has pledged to resume serious negotiations with Israel where they were broken off after the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1996. A senior Syrian official promised to “match every step [taken by Barak] with a similar one.”

Addressing the Israeli public directly, Assad welcomed Barak’s election. Using unusually warm language, the Syrian leader described Barak as “honest, sincere and committed to peace.” Even after Israel’s bombing of Lebanon last month, Syria avoided direct criticism of Barak. Instead, Damascus accused outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of trying to sabotage Barak’s intent to resume peace negotiations with Syria.

Syria also made known its displeasure with Hezbollah guerrillas for the firing of rockets at northern Israel at this critical juncture. Furthermore, the Syrian regime took the extraordinary step of inviting some Israeli mayors to visit Damascus.

Assad’s new realism stems from a belief that Barak’s victory provides an opportunity that should be fully exploited. The Syrian leader now acknowledges that important differences exist between Labor and Likud and recognizes the need to match his declared commitment to the peace process with a flexible negotiating strategy. His direct appeal to Israelis is a case in point.

Another major shift in Assad’s stand lies in his willingness to consider full normalization--establishing full diplomatic and economic relations--once the two countries agree on a schedule for withdrawal from the Golan Heights. “Normalization is important for both sides,” said Walid Mualem, Syria’s ambassador to the United States, adding that a formula may easily be found to settle the question of water for Israel and Syria from the Golan.

In another departure from its previous position, Syria has stressed that Hezbollah will not be allowed to violate the terms of a final settlement--a gesture that shows signs of appreciation for the pressures facing Barak to withdraw Israeli soldiers from Lebanon. In saying this, Damascus implies that it intends to disarm the pro-Iranian militia once Israel agrees to withdraw from the Golan, thus meeting Israel’s major security concerns regarding a full withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Syrian officials have expressed their optimism that Israel and Syria (Lebanon) would be able to conclude a comprehensive settlement in just “a few months.”

Other factors are pushing Assad toward peace. His health is deteriorating and the Syrian leader faces unresolved questions about who would succeed him. The signs suggest that Assad is grooming his oldest surviving son, Bashar, 31, for the job. In recent months, Bashar has been more visible in public affairs and inter-Arab diplomacy. Well aware of his own impending mortality and the volatility of Syrian politics, Assad would prefer that his as yet untried son assumes office without the complications of an unresolved conflict with Israel. Recently, Assad passed a law pardoning tens of thousands of prisoners, some of them accused of spying for Israel and others accused of political offenses. This move represents a goodwill gesture toward the opposition, and ultimately will advance Bashar’s political fortunes.

Another factor motivating Assad’s newfound enthusiasm for peace is the dismal state of the Syrian economy. Unemployment is about 20%, and living conditions have deteriorated considerably in the last five years. Financially strapped because of falling oil prices, the Assad regime urgently needs Western aid. Like their Egyptian, Israeli, Palestinian and Jordanian counterparts before them, Syrian leaders look forward to a peace dividend in the form of U.S. and European Union assistance.

For his part, Barak has pledged to evacuate Israeli troops from southern Lebanon within a year. He knows well that this pledge depends on a settlement with Syria that involves full withdrawal from the Golan Heights. But despite this common ground, much hard bargaining lies ahead. The coming struggle will revolve around the details of security arrangements, normalization of relations and the question of water. Now that the current leaders of both countries are prepared to meet each other halfway, the prospects for peace between them have never seemed better.

In his talks with Barak this visit, President Clinton should capitalize on the new peace momentum and encourage the Israeli leader to resume negotiations with Syria. With Israeli-Palestinian peace talks also set to restart, the new millennium finally could see the end of the conflict between Israel and its neighbors.