L.A. County Expected to Post Slight Drop in Factory Jobs in ’99
The number of manufacturing jobs in Los Angeles County is expected to fall slightly this year, local economists conclude in a report to be released Friday, but healthy employment gains elsewhere in the region are expected to mitigate any ripple effects in Southern California’s bounding economy.
For the first time in three years, manufacturing jobs are likely to drop 0.4%, or roughly 3,000 positions, in 1999, in part because of anticipated losses in the apparel and aerospace industries, according to the report by the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.
But the loss could have been worse if not for expected job increases in such sectors as fabricated metal production and processed foods, said economist Jack Kyser, co-author of the report.
Growth in those sectors, Kyser said, should help Los Angeles County retain its position as the nation’s leader in manufacturing jobs for the third year in a row.
In 1998, the county’s total manufacturing work force averaged 667,800. The metropolitan Chicago and Detroit areas last year were second and third, respectively.
In fact, the Southern California region posted more manufacturing jobs than all but three states, and the region is expected to add 10,600 jobs by year’s end.
Orange County and the Inland Empire, in particular, should expect to see big gains. Each of those areas is forecast to add at least 6,000 new manufacturing jobs.
Until the latter part of last year, the apparel and aerospace sectors had played significant roles in Los Angeles County’s three-year growth spurt in manufacturing jobs, Kyser said. “Now it looks like we’re seeing a reversal of fortune.”
The report forecasts a drop in aerospace jobs of about 4,300 by year’s end, largely due to downsizing by Boeing Co., which plans to phase out production of its MD-11, MD-80 and MD-90 lines in Long Beach. That will result in the loss of several hundred and perhaps even thousands of jobs this year, company spokesman John Thom said.
Boeing’s plans to slow production of 747 jetliners has also sent a ripple effect through Northrop Grumman Corp.’s manufacturing facility in Hawthorne, which makes the central fuselage for the wide-body aircraft. Northrop spokesman James Hart said the Boeing scale-back will cost the South Bay plant about 1,500 jobs.
Meanwhile, the county’s apparel industry, which had previously been forecast to lose 3,800 positions this year, will now probably lose only 1,500 or so, based on revised figures from the state Employment Development Department, Kyser said.
Most of the job losses in the apparel industry, the county’s largest manufacturing employer, are expected to come from small- to medium-size businesses, since roughly 90% of apparel firms in the county employ no more than 50 people. The lost jobs stem largely from stiff competition from cheaper imports and the flight of garment assembly work to countries with lower labor costs, the report finds.
One industry that is both driving that growth and helping staunch job loss in Los Angeles County is fabricated metal production, which covers everything from moldings to dies to machine parts.
In Los Angeles County alone, the sector is expected to add 1,000 jobs. Orange County is anticipated to nearly repeat its 3% job growth in the sector last year.
John Norton, board member for the local chapter of the Precision Metal Stamping Assn., said one reason the industry has flourished in the region is the availability of low-cost imported raw materials.
Another factor, Norton said, has been municipal efforts to lure and keep fabricated metal businesses because they tend to be stable employers. These firms typically make large capital investments in equipment and training, and therefore are less likely to relocate.
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L.A.’s Job Trend Reversal
While the number of manufacturing jobs in Los Angeles County is expected to dip slightly in 1999 after three years of gains, the five-county Southern California region is expected to add 10,600 manufacturing positions by year’s end.
1999*: 664,800 jobs, a decrease of 3,000 in Los Angeles County
* Estimated
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.
