The New President Must Deliver on Mandela’s Dream

The successful completion of South Africa’s second election since the end of apartheid proves that in only five years, the country has mellowed into a stable, mature democracy. President Nelson Mandela, who will resign June 16, will be remembered for his saintliness and emphasis on reconciliation, which worked wonders in South Africa’s transition to democracy. Five years hence, President-elect Thabo Mbeki must be remembered for leading the country out of poverty and its trappings of insecurity, greed, corruption and criminality.

While the 1994 election was primarily about ending white minority rule and installing democracy, last week’s elections hinged on the question of delivery, of ensuring that the transformation of society promised five years ago gradually becomes a reality. Its distinguishing political characteristic was the African National Congress’ stunning margin of victory and its immediate effect on the country’s politics.

The ANC’s two-thirds majority in Parliament horrified opposition parties and those who fear that the ruling party will now become intolerant, authoritarian, insensitive to the interests of (especially white) minorities and less open to the “consensus politics” that characterized the Mandela era. Some even predict that Mbeki might ordain himself “president for life.”

Opposition parties have scrambled to scrape up the crumbs. In a delicious irony, the former minority rulers, the New National Party, were unseated as the official opposition by the Democratic Party, the very liberals who were their official opposition in Parliament during the apartheid era. Though constrained by its provincial and ethnic image of Zulu exclusiveness, the Zulu-based Inkatha Freedom Party of Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi did not fare as badly as many experts had predicted. It retained its status as the country’s third-biggest party by topping the New National Party. With Inkatha set to lose control of KwaZulu-Natal province when all the votes are in, the only consolation for Buthelezi will be to accept the deputy presidency that Mbeki is expected to offer him.

The election results confirm the pervading liberation ethos among South African voters and affirm the collapse of apartheid’s political choices and patterns of partisan support. They also crystallize the image of a political system cast in a racial mold with virtually no immediate room for major electoral shifts. There is a governing party backed by a committed black majority; moderate to small-sized parties supported by whites, Coloreds, as mixed-race people are known, Indians and only a few blacks; and racist and separatist white parties and black radical groups pushed to the political margins. Just as the former apartheid rulers once carried the torch for white South Africans, particularly Afrikaners, the ANC is now the torchbearer of the current black majority and will be so for a very long time. No wonder opposition parties such as the Democratic Party are thinking of holding an “opposition summit.” Mandela’s moral authority may guarantee him a role in mediating future conflicts.

Why did the ANC win so handsomely despite a failure to deliver on its 1994 slogan of “A Better Life for All”? There are a number of possible explanations.

One is that voters forgave the party’s lack of follow-through on its big-ticket promises because the ANC got the transformation from apartheid underway, brought peace and implemented sensible economic policies. But financial and job security remains a pressing issue for a lot of ANC supporters. Unemployment and poverty are uppermost concerns of blacks, while whites, Coloreds and Indians rate crime and corruption as serious problems.

ANC voter satisfaction seemed to be based on modest levels of improvement in housing, health care, water and electricity delivery, and education. Consider:

* Five years ago, about 30% of South Africans lacked access to a safe supply of water near their homes. Today, as a result of the government’s water-supply program, that percentage has dropped to 20%.

* In 1994, less than 40% of households had electricity. Today, 63% are connected to the electricity grid.

* When Mandela became president in 1994, about one-quarter of South African homes had telephones. Now, 35% are linked to the telephone system.

This progress can be stated in another way: Every day, on average, about 1,300 homes are electrified, 750 telephones installed and 1,700 people gain access to clean water. There is also a popular primary-school nutrition program benefiting more than 5 million children, as well as free health care for the unemployed and underemployed.

Steadily, the economy is becoming more competitive. Tourism is growing at an impressive rate; road construction and other development projects are expanding into regions once ignored and public-works programs have created hundreds of thousands of jobs, though some are temporary.

But the disparity between South Africa’s haves and have-nots remains alarming wide and along racial lines. More than one-quarter of the population, or 9.1 million people, earn $90 or less a month; about 62% earn less than $248 a month. The overall jobless rate is 34%, with unemployment among black women a catastrophic 52.4%. Unemployment among whites is 4%.

In education, about 3% of blacks are college graduates, while 4.3% of Coloreds, 10% of Indians and 24% of whites hold such degrees. But more than 9.7 million men and 11.2 million women have received no education.

Clearly, the challenges facing Mbeki’s government are enormous. An early indication of his determination to deliver on his campaign promises will come with his Cabinet appointments. He vowed to make effectiveness the main criterion of his choices.

Unfortunately, the hysteria and paranoia of the opposition parties will make progress more difficult to achieve. But they need only look at the record for some comfort. Since 1994, the ANC has won two-thirds majorities in at least five of the country’s nine provinces, and the world has not collapsed in any of them.

The South African public is already comfortable with the idea of a dominant ANC. In turn, the ANC and Mbeki know that what they need now is political cunning, sheer toil and determination to continue the transformation of South Africa through workable plans, strategies and efficient government institutions.*