Coalition Government Likely in Indonesia

Two opposition parties took an early lead Tuesday over the ruling political machine in scant initial returns from Indonesia’s first free election in 44 years--a peaceful vote that most observers judged as fair despite some irregularities.

With only 3% of the more than 100 million votes counted from Monday’s election, official returns showed the two-party coalition led by Megawati Sukarnoputri--the 52-year-old daughter of Indonesia’s founding father, Sukarno--with a combined 62% of the vote. President B.J. Habibie’s ruling Golkar party was in third place with 15%.

Election officials warned it was too early to draw firm conclusions from the preliminary returns. But, with the vote split among 48 parties, it appeared likely that a coalition government would have to be cobbled together ahead of parliament’s choosing a new president by December.

Habibie conceded through a spokesman that no party was likely to win a majority. Golkar has never taken less than 64% of the vote in more than three decades of elections. But as Adi Sasono, minister of cooperatives and small enterprises, noted: “In the past elections, people knew who would win and who would be president.”

Golkar officials said they will respect the results of a fair election and are prepared to be part of the opposition pending the outcome of voting. Megawati’s Indonesian Democratic Party in Struggle, or PDIP, and coalition partner Abdurrahman Wahid of the National Awakening Party have made similar pledges.

Among those who had early praise for Indonesia’s conduct of the election was former President Carter. He visited 18 polling stations Monday and led a delegation of 100 U.S. poll monitors.

“The reports we’re getting from our monitors are overwhelming favorable,” Carter said Tuesday. “There was a high voter turnout, the election was orderly, there was meticulous attention to the rules and regulations. So far, I think Indonesia has handled this very well.”

Regardless of the outcome, international observers applauded the huge, peaceful turnout. It was, as Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer put it, a “truly momentous event” that ushered in an era of democracy 13 months after student demonstrators forced Habibie’s predecessor, President Suharto, to resign amid riots here in the capital that claimed 1,200 lives.

Financial markets reacted well to the notion of a stable, democratic Indonesia. The Jakarta stock exchange soared 14% Tuesday, reaching its highest level in nearly two years, and the local currency, the rupiah, increased in strength by 4% against the U.S. dollar.

The International Monetary Fund added to the upbeat mood by announcing in Washington it was releasing an additional $450 million from a $43-billion bailout package it put together for Indonesia when Asia was hit by an economic crisis two years ago. The leading presidential candidates are all committed to supporting IMF-dictated reforms.

“Indonesia is not out of the woods yet,” said Bruce Gale, an analyst with Political and Economic Risk Consultancy in Hong Kong. “But the election provides a foundation for recovery. Indonesia’s basic problem is political, and if you have a legislature that has legitimacy, the other problems are not unworkable.”

Exactly what the winning candidates intend to do remains a mystery; none of the presidential hopefuls articulated detailed platforms, though all have promised continued democratic reform.