Montenegro’s President Backed Right Horse in Defying Serbia

Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic, speaking in his typically quiet but steely manner, was careful not to gloat as he dissected the devastating failure of his greatest political enemy, Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.

“I might feel entitled to full satisfaction” because events have proved Montenegro’s risky pro-West stance correct, Djukanovic said in an interview. “But the feeling of sorrow prevails. I feel also relieved because I think we’re now leaving behind us one of the most difficult phases of our life in this country.”

The Montenegrin government is still alert for any attempt by Milosevic to make this tiny republic the focus of the next Yugoslav crisis. But it is clear that top officials think they have won their dangerous standoff with Milosevic, which started the day NATO bombs began to fall.

Montenegro, a democratic republic yoked to the dominating Serbia in the rump Yugoslavia, never recognized the “state of war” declared by the government in Belgrade, the Yugoslav and Serbian capital, when the NATO action began. It stayed firmly in the West’s camp throughout the crisis despite enormous pressure from Yugoslav army forces and fierce criticism from the pro-Milosevic political opposition in Montenegro.

As Djukanovic sees it, the key question now is whether Milosevic falls quickly and Serbia turns democratic. If that happens, Djukanovic says, he will keep Montenegro in a reformed Yugoslavia that can no longer threaten his republic’s interests. If it does not, he will hold a referendum on independence, he said. Constitutionally, a two-thirds majority would be required for approval.

“Of course, our patience has its limits,” he added.

Djukanovic has made similar comments before, but not always so clearly. In the eyes of many here, his position on independence is fuzzy. People often see what they want to see, or what they fear seeing.

The pro-Milosevic Socialist People’s Party, which supports Yugoslav unity, has blasted him in recent weeks for allegedly maneuvering toward independence.

On the other hand, the pro-independence Liberal Alliance charges that Djukanovic is keeping Montenegro wedded to a nightmarish version of Milosevic’s old dream of a unified Serbian state--a “little Greater Serbia,” as the Liberals contemptuously put it.

“We are completely skeptical that Serbia can be democratized,” said Slavko Perovic, the former president of the Liberal Alliance and still its key figure. By expressing possible willingness to hold a referendum on independence, Djukanovic “is trying to keep our membership pacified,” Perovic charged.

“We want to put pressure on Mr. Djukanovic,” Perovic said. “We’re going to do everything possible to have a referendum, but we’re also going to do everything possible so that there isn’t bloodshed just for the sake of independence.”

The Liberals have launched a series of public rallies aimed at pushing Djukanovic onto the road to independence, with the first event held in late May, a second rally last Saturday and more planned for the months ahead.

Supporters of independence look back on a long and proud history in which Montenegro was never subdued by the Ottoman Empire, which ruled most of the Balkans for centuries.

“We’re hoping that Montenegro will become what it used to be--a sovereign state--and that such a Montenegro will be part of Europe and the whole world,” said Lazar Kapisoda, 26, who showed up at the first Liberal rally with a replica of an old Montenegrin battle flag, a white cross on a red background.

The question of independence is at least several months away, and probably much longer. In the meantime, Montenegro faces serious issues remaining from NATO’s fight with Milosevic that need to be sorted out.

Most crucial is the role of the Yugoslav army in Montenegro. Throughout May, the army threw up an ever-tightening noose of checkpoints on major roads, especially those leading in from the borders with Croatia, Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Despite efforts by the Montenegrin government to maintain open borders, the army used these checkpoints to block shipments of humanitarian aid, raw materials for Montenegrin factories and passage into the country of foreigners without Belgrade-issued visas.

The checkpoints added to tensions between the Milosevic-controlled army, now estimated to have about 30,000 soldiers in Montenegro, and the heavily armed Montenegrin police, well trained and loyal to Djukanovic, estimated at 15,000.

Djukanovic and other officials made it clear that if the army tried to launch a coup, the police would fight back--and they seemed to think the police would win.

Now that confidence is even greater.

“There is no morale in the army for such a thing,” Montenegrin Deputy Prime Minister Dragisa Burzan said. “Most of the officers and especially the reservists wouldn’t turn on Montenegro, and the police are quite determined to defend it.”

Still, Burzan said, it is “of extreme importance” that Milosevic’s forces in Kosovo be withdrawn into Serbia, not Montenegro, and that the Yugoslav army in Montenegro be reduced to peacetime levels.

“We are not relaxed in any way, to be quite honest,” he said. “We are now at full mobilization--we do not like to see anything happening at the last moment.”

Srdjan Darmanovic, director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Podgorica, the capital, said severe tensions between Montenegro and Belgrade will remain, but he expressed strong doubt that Milosevic can take over here.

“As long as Milosevic is in power, Montenegro will have problems and trouble,” Darmanovic said. “[But] I’m not sure after deployment of 50,000 troops led by NATO in Kosovo, and after this heavy defeat, that he is capable of jeopardizing Montenegro seriously. I don’t want to say he will not try again, but I’m not sure he’s capable of starting another war. He miscalculated very much in these 70 days.”

Burzan, despite his caution about Yugoslav army actions, also indicated that safety for Montenegro is within grasp.

“This government has achieved what no government or ruler in Montenegro has achieved in 10 centuries,” he said. “This is the first time we have a large-scale conflict in the Balkans and Montenegro escaped [without] devastation.

“It was a good piece of political maneuvering, really--not just in the general sense, but in small details, very well done. Maybe I’m a little euphoric at this moment.”

Burzan predicted that events are pushing Montenegro inexorably toward independence and closer ties to Europe, even if Milosevic falls from power.

“I think we will not in the near future see a strong democratic movement in Serbia,” he said. “Milosevic never became strong for his own personal qualities. It’s only that he fit into the Serbian nationalistic pattern.”

That means that just as Montenegro was a haven of Balkan freedom during the Ottoman Empire, it should now become an independent beacon of democracy, Burzan said, adding: “We have many times been a lighthouse.”