Expected Rainfall Not Enough to Wash Out Fire Officials’ Fears

Despite forecasts of rain for today, an unusually dry winter has fanned fire officials’ fears that this summer could be one of the worst fire seasons on record.

Heavy brush from the 43 inches of rain last year followed by a dry winter this year have created ideal conditions for major fires in the county’s wooded and wild-land areas.

“We rely on history and looking back 20 years, and the number of fires in the years following an El Nino have been significantly higher,” said Assistant Chief Mike Proett of the county Fire Department. “Looking at that and the kind of rainfall we had a year ago, I’d say there’s a greater danger, and we’re certainly preparing for an increase.”

Although today’s expected storm would be the second in the last two weeks, rainfall totals this season are less than 40% of normal, county hydrologist Dolores Taylor said.

Recent rainfall has ratcheted up moisture in back-country vegetation areas to safe levels. But officials fear that if this is the last storm of the season, those plants will dry out quickly and increase the fire danger.

“If this is it, then we can expect to see that level drop off pretty fast,” Proett said.

Forecasters predict that the weak winter storm from the Gulf of Alaska will dump between half an inch to 1 inch of rain before clearing out late this evening.

Snow is also expected in some elevations between 4,000 and 5,000 feet. Clouds are forecast through Sunday.

“Energywise, this is not a very strong storm, certainly not as strong nor as cold as the one that hit last week,” said Jeff House, a meteorologist with Weather Data Inc. in Wichita, Kan. “That’s pretty normal for this time of year. . . . Storms generally track farther to the north the later in the season you get.”

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The El Nino storms that swept into the county last year resulted in the dramatic growth of plants that have since died off, leaving an inordinate amount of what fire officials call “dead fuels” that dry quickly and burn hot.

Even the “live fuels” in the area will dry out quickly if little or no rain falls between now and May, the traditional start of fire season.

“The real concern is getting to that critical level a lot sooner than we’d like,” Proett said. “That’ll not only make it more dangerous, but it’ll make the season longer.”

History is as good an indicator as any when it comes to predicting fire seasons.

Over the past 20 years, major fires have occurred regularly in the two years following rainy winters.

In late 1983 and early 1984, El Nino pushed storm after storm across Ventura County, dumping as much as 30 inches in some areas.

In July 1985, an errant spark ignited a stand of tall grass near Wheeler Gorge that erupted into a blaze that burned uncontrolled for more than a week, consuming about 118,000 acres of brush and destroying several homes in the Ojai area.

Several months later, on the tail end of the fire season, another blaze started near Santa Paula and charred more than 45,000 acres before firefighters gained control of it.

Another wet winter in 1992 was trailed by an explosive fire season in 1993.

That was the year that the Greenmeadow fire near Thousand Oaks blackened more than 85,000 acres before burning itself out, and the Steckel fire near Santa Paula burned more than 20,000 acres.

“What do they say about history? It always repeats itself,” Proett said.

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Officials at Los Padres National Forest are also eyeing the coming fire season with alarm, but they hope today’s rains will ease the threat on the forest, which is one of the most fire-prone areas in the country.

“You never really know how bad [a fire season] is going to be until you’re right in the middle of it, but we are concerned,” said national forest spokeswoman Juanita Freel. “There is a lot of fuel out there, a lot more than we’ve had other years, which is bad. But we’re hoping that this rain is going to help things.”

What would ease the minds of fire officials is a long, steady rain instead of the quick, one-day storms that leave little more than slick streets and muddy yards.

But according to meteorologists there is nothing in the forecast that indicates any storms brewing of that magnitude and staying power.

Looking past 10 days, House said there was no significant rain developing for Southern California.

However, there is a storm developing in the far north that may bring the state rain by Tuesday.

“I wouldn’t count on it,” House said. “Right now all I’m predicting is some high clouds for the Southern California region.”

There is little fire officials can do other than wait for a fire to erupt.

However, they say county residents should begin thinking about annual weed abatement. The county Fire Department will begin sending notices in the next two months to remind homeowners to clear brush from within 150 feet of their homes.

“What we’ve got now is a significant danger that is only going to intensify as time goes by,” Proett said. “It’s important that people out there realize the danger and do what they can to prevent it.”