The Train to the Plane

The people mover to ferry passengers between John Wayne and El Toro airports has hit some bumps along the planning tracks. In the process, the question arises whether this could be the first in a series of acknowledgments that what the county hoped to do at El Toro may not be possible.

Last week, the county said what many have suspected about the proposal to link facilities by rail: It’s going to cost a lot of money to build and operate, and it would be expensive to use. Charles V. Smith, chairman of the Board of Supervisors, provided the appropriate conclusion: “I think it’s time to refine our plans.” By refining plans, he means having El Toro handle more and John Wayne handle fewer passengers than hoped for.

All of this has come about because the new technical report prepared by county planners says that the seven-mile system would cost from $103 to $110 per round trip. Somebody would have to pay for that, either the passengers themselves or the airlines that made use of it.

For air-fare bargain hunters, the temptation would be unavoidable to link this price for crossing the city of Irvine with, say, the cost of flying to Chicago. The price for the rail transit undoubtedly would stack up unfavorably in any such comparison, except for those who are wealthy or have their company paying.

Since everything in the El Toro airport planning process is linked to everything else, the planners’ conclusion has consequences. The rail link is at the heart of the two-airport system being proposed, because you have to have some way to provide for connecting flights between short- and long-haul operations. And at the heart of the two-airport system is a set of assumptions with political ramifications. They have to do with who is bearing what share of the county’s air-traffic load on into the future. This is important because the county is so divided on El Toro, depending on who gets the burden of overflights.

The people-mover idea gives something to everyone and thus makes possible the concept of burden sharing. If there is no two-airport system, then you either expand John Wayne Airport when the current passenger cap is lifted in the new century or move commercial traffic to the new El Toro airfield. The first is unacceptable to Newport Beach, and the latter seems to South County a way of dumping air traffic on newer residents.

In its people-mover system, and in the separate issue of how flight paths will work, the county has sought to address these political concerns. If you did not have the concerns, you would not build an airport this way.

If the rail link cannot be made to operate as intended, the umbilical cord in the two-airport system is affected. Already the county has acknowledged that without a rail link, the El Toro demand would climb up to around 28.8-million passengers by 2020, with John Wayne being reduced even from current usage. Clearly it would be preferable politically to have what a rail link would make possible: keeping the number to 25-million passengers at El Toro, with John Wayne taking 10.4 million.

For some people, the numbers at this point don’t matter at all; they already are unshakable in their positions for or against an El Toro airport. In this environment, credit the county with owning up at last to the problem with the rail link. But at the root of this discussion is the basic question of whether El Toro can be made to fly as planned.

Since this is essentially a preapproved airport, the public is in the position of having to wait until all the planning is done before it finds out what it is going to get. In December 1996, the supervisors decided to go forward without definite answers on whether a something-for-all airport system could work. This dilemma is especially acute on the question of proposed flight plans. The new terminal proposal that was released last week is dependent in conception and execution on whether the Federal Aviation Administration will allow the operation of runways as conceived.

The county should have had more definitive answers before going forward. It’s too late to turn back the clock, but it’s also fair to wonder whether other reversals lie ahead on the flight-path and safety questions.

To help resolve a political dilemma that has a county sharply divided over meeting future air transportation needs, the county must be forthright about what is really feasible. It must do this sooner rather than later and let the residents know exactly what they are likely to get.