Israeli Voters to Get Clear-Cut Winner

A divided Israel began voting in national elections early today, facing a suddenly clear-cut two-way race between beleaguered incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the challenger widely expected to unseat him, Ehud Barak.

Barak’s lead appeared to solidify Sunday when the other two remaining candidates withdrew from the competition at the last minute, and one, former Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai, endorsed Barak. Voters are now in a position to choose the prime minister outright, avoiding a runoff that had been likely June 1.

Netanyahu had been counting on the runoff to give him time to catch up to Barak, whose lead in polls has been growing steadily. Mordechai’s long-anticipated decision to quit, coupled with that of far-right politician Zeev Binyamin Begin, may have sealed Netanyahu’s fate. Begin refused to endorse Netanyahu.

A senior aide to Netanyahu early today all but conceded his defeat. “It does not look good and hasn’t for some time,” the aide said.

The election of a new government will go a long way in determining the nature of Israel’s relations with the Palestinians and its Arab neighbors, and the future of peacemaking in the Middle East, consistently stalled under the Netanyahu government. Barak is seen as a figure more amenable to negotiations with Arab leaders.

It also will serve as a referendum on the three-year leadership of Netanyahu, a combative, U.S.-educated premier who was forced to call early elections when his government--under fire from the opposition left and his own right--collapsed in December.

The tense, nasty campaign underscored the ethnic and religious differences rending Israeli society. Many Israelis said they saw their vote as a way to stake out their positions in ongoing battles between secularism and religious orthodoxy, between European and Middle Eastern Jews, between tribes and ideologies.

In addition to voting for the prime minister, voters will choose a new 120-member Knesset, or parliament. More than 30 parties are competing.

Polls are not particularly reliable in this polarized country, and the race is likely to be close, so both Netanyahu, of the center-right Likud Party, and Barak, of the center-left Labor Party, used the final day before the elections for a round of last-minute campaign appearances and battling news conferences.

Looking practically triumphant, Barak waded into a potato field north of Tel Aviv and urged Israelis from all parties and ideologies to put aside their differences and support his candidacy.

“There are only two ways: Netanyahu’s way, which has led us to this stalemate, or our way, which will bring unity to Israel,” Barak, a highly decorated retired army officer, told followers. “We now have a real chance at unity, of switching from the divisiveness and dissension to real hope for the future.”

Closely advised by a team of American consultants led by Democratic image-maker James Carville, Barak has skillfully emphasized his military career as proof of his commitment to keeping Israel safe but has also exploited social issues such as unemployment and education. Perhaps most significantly, he has attracted a large bloc of voters among immigrants from the former Soviet Union, who now total 15% of the electorate.

Netanyahu also portrayed the vote as a clear choice between two visions: a pro-Israel right that he claims to represent and a pro-Palestinian left-wing opposition. He implored supporters who have deserted him in recent months to “come home.”

“There’s no other home,” he said during a testy news conference. “The alternatives are the left or me.”

The prime minister used the appearance to once again criticize the media for what he considers to be bias against him and to blast Labor for what he alleged were improper financing practices (a charge Labor leaders later denied).

Netanyahu said he was confident he could prove the polls wrong and eke out a victory. Polls traditionally give an exaggerated percentage to Labor, and the number of undecided voters remains high enough in several polls to suggest an erosion in Barak’s lead. The undecided tend to be ultra-Orthodox Jews, who vote solidly and in huge numbers for the right. Most senior rabbis have endorsed Netanyahu.

Still, polls are favoring Barak by 8 percentage points or more.

Until his withdrawal, Mordechai had been running a distant third. The popular former defense minister quit Netanyahu’s government nearly five months ago and helped form a new centrist party.

He urged his followers to vote for Barak despite the fact that he and his fellow army veteran have had numerous disputes over the years.

His announcement was followed by the withdrawal of Begin, who made a point of not throwing his endorsement to Netanyahu. Saturday night, the first Israeli Arab to run for the premiership, Azmi Bishara, also dropped out.

Two associates of Begin said Netanyahu’s team had implored Begin to remain in the race as a way to guarantee a second round.

But it was Mordechai’s decision to step aside that was the most significant. Because he had served in Netanyahu’s government, he was seen by many as having a credibility beyond that of the other candidates.

Still, his campaign never took off, and instead of helping oust Netanyahu--Mordechai’s stated goal--his presence probably would have forced a runoff between Netanyahu and Barak, prolonging the election season and giving Netanyahu time to recoup. (A runoff would have been required if no candidate got more than 50% of the vote.)

Mordechai, who had vowed to remain in the race to the bitter end, had come under increasing pressure to step aside. Former officers in Israel’s secret spy agency joined average Israelis in publishing large newspaper advertisements urging him to end his candidacy.

When he did so, he said, “Overcome your emotions--I had to overcome mine--and think logically with me.” Citing what he called a “wave of hatred,” he added that at the rate Israel’s bitter and volatile campaign was going, he feared that prolonging it would end in bloodshed.

As he spoke, a member of his centrist party wept alongside him. She was Dalia Rabin-Pelossof, daughter of the late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was assassinated by an ultranationalist Jew after a peace rally in 1995.

Pollsters said that many voters who supported Mordechai would go to Barak but that some might return to Netanyahu and Likud.

In trying to woo them back Sunday, Netanyahu sought to lump Barak and several of the more leftist members of his party with Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat and other Arab politicians, who Netanyahu argued would just as soon see Israel destroyed.

Peace with the Palestinians is an issue that was oddly absent from this campaign. In fact, focus on Netanyahu’s character, instead of on issues where he could show decisiveness, crippled his chances, according to his own advisors.

With his comments, the prime minister appeared to be attempting to reintroduce the issue of the Arab-Israeli conflict as a way to call into question Barak’s ability to handle negotiations with the Palestinians. It was Labor that entered into the landmark Oslo accords, which Netanyahu, the Likud and their core constituency oppose but which the majority of Israelis support.

“This is the last conflict he wants to capitalize on,” said Hebrew University political scientist Yaron Ezrahi. “It is not a winning card, except among die-hard right-wingers, and maybe 1 or 2% of the others. It is not enough to close the gap.”

Ever fearful of violence, the Israeli government was keeping Palestinians out of Israel by closing the West Bank and Gaza Strip for 24 hours. That didn’t stop numerous scuffles between party activists who spent Sunday planting banners and posters along highways and at intersections. One Likud supporter died of injuries sustained during a fight with a purported Labor supporter, police said, while authorities were searching for a group of young boys seen chanting slogans about Barak ending up the way Rabin did.

Elections are passionate affairs in Israel in less violent ways as well. Turnout usually exceeds 80%. And planeloads of Israeli citizens who live abroad, mostly in the United States, were arriving throughout the weekend.

Yossi Beinart, a systems analyst for a Wall Street brokerage firm, was among them. He has traveled to Israel for every recent election.

“The margin is always so thin,” Beinart, 43, said, “that I feel it is very important to be here. Every vote counts.”