Yeltsin Leaves Russia Open to Anarchy

Although President Boris N. Yeltsin escaped impeachment over the weekend, Russia faces another threat to its political stability, this time brought on by its flawed constitution and the president himself.

By firing Prime Minister Yevgeny M. Primakov last week, Yeltsin thrust the nation into a brief but perilous period of constitutional limbo in which no one is designated to succeed the president if he should die or become incapacitated.

Under Russia’s constitution, the prime minister would become acting president if Yeltsin could no longer serve. But if the president died now, when parliament has not confirmed a new prime minister, there is no law spelling out who would take charge.

“The gaps in the constitution are more dangerous than they may appear,” said Igor M. Stepanov, head of the Constitutional Law Department at the State and Law Institute in Moscow. “They not only create a legal impasse, they could also trigger a fierce struggle for power. It is an open door to a grave, large-scale political crisis.”

With Primakov gone, it could take anywhere from a few days to a month before a new prime minister is installed. The untimely death of the 68-year-old Yeltsin--who has been in fragile health for years--could spark a violent battle for power with serious consequences for Russia and the entire world.

Who would command the army at such a time? Russia’s constitution does not say. Who would control Russia’s nuclear button? Who would have the authority to issue decrees, fire Cabinet ministers or declare martial law? The constitution is silent.

“In today’s Russia, the procedure of succession of power is simply nonexistent,” said Vladimir B. Isakov, a lawyer who heads the legal department of the lower house of parliament, the Duma. “This creates tremendous uncertainty as to how power would actually be handed over from one person to another.”

Yeltsin has been Russia’s only president since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, so the country has never experienced a transfer of power from one democratically elected leader to the next. How authority passes from Yeltsin to his successor will be the ultimate test of whether democracy has taken root in Russia.

Yeltsin, who has made a habit of ousting politicians who had ambitions to supplant him, fired Primakov last Wednesday after it was clear that the popular prime minister had become his main political rival. The Duma is scheduled to vote next Wednesday on whether to confirm the president’s choice to replace him, Sergei V. Stepashin, a longtime Yeltsin loyalist.

Under the constitution, Yeltsin and the Duma can go three rounds in deciding on a new prime minister, but they must conclude within a specified time period, in this case by June 16. If the deputies do not confirm a Yeltsin nominee by the third try, the constitution says the president must disband the Duma, appoint a prime minister and rule by decree until new elections are held.

Constitution Drafted Specifically for Yeltsin

It is no accident that the constitution is weighted so heavily in Yeltsin’s favor: It was drafted specifically for him to enshrine his formidable powers and make it virtually impossible for anyone to remove him from office.

The constitution was born in a power struggle between Yeltsin and parliament in 1993, less than two years after the Soviet Union fell.

Yeltsin had tried to amend the Soviet-era constitution to give himself greater power. When lawmakers opposed him, he dissolved parliament. In defiance, then-Vice President Alexander V. Rutskoi declared himself president and joined lawmakers barricading themselves inside the parliament headquarters, known as the White House. Yeltsin ordered tanks to fire on the building and was victorious.

Rutskoi went to jail and Yeltsin won voters’ approval of the constitution in use today. Among its features, it eliminated the post of vice president.

“The Russian constitution is a textbook example of how a constitution should not be written,” said Isakov, the Duma legal department chief. “Even a cursory glance at the constitution is enough to conclude that it was written for Yeltsin, to serve his unlimited aspirations for personal power.”

Nation Has No Succession Law

Since the constitution’s adoption, Yeltsin has successfully resisted every attempt to amend it.

Rather than relying on a vice president, the constitution specifies that if the president should die or become incapacitated, the prime minister would become acting president and call a new election within 90 days. However, if the post of prime minister should be vacant at the same time, the constitution gives no authority to an acting prime minister or any other official to take over as president.

In the United States, by contrast, the Constitution and the Presidential Succession Law spell out an order of succession carried out to 17 places. At the top of the list are the vice president, the House speaker and the Senate president pro tem, followed by the members of the president’s Cabinet, from the secretary of State to the secretary of Veterans Affairs.

Russian politicians, legal experts and analysts outlined several scenarios that could occur if Yeltsin was to die in the days before a new prime minister is installed. One of the most likely is that Stepashin--the current acting prime minister--would declare himself in power.

In such an event, Duma Deputy Sergei N. Yushenkov predicted, his colleagues would quickly confirm Stepashin to avoid the chaos that would otherwise result.

“They understand perfectly well that every minute of anarchy can take the country closer and closer to an abyss that will swallow all and everything,” Yushenkov said.

But others predicted that the Communists would see Yeltsin’s death as their best opportunity to regain power and would challenge Stepashin’s right to rule, calling out their supporters to stage demonstrations across the country.

Stepashin continues to hold the post of interior minister and commands 200,000 troops and police officers. Mass protests by the Communists would provide an excuse for him to declare a state of emergency.

Behind the scenes, the president’s family and inner circle would desperately try to prevent the accession of an outsider who would hold them accountable for the misdeeds of the Yeltsin years, said Dmitri Y. Furman, senior analyst at the Institute of Europe think tank in Moscow.

“Almost any successor would lay all the sins of the past on Yeltsin and his close circle,” Furman said.