Mexico’s Ruling Party Favored to Keep Power

With an overwhelming triumph in Mexico’s first open presidential primary, Francisco Labastida has become the odds-on favorite to win the presidency next year and keep the world’s longest-ruling party in power into the 21st century.

Labastida, 57, a three-time Cabinet member widely perceived as the favorite of leaders of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, has two big advantages as he heads into the July 2000 race. First, his party won democratic credentials by holding a relatively clean primary on Sunday, jettisoning a much-criticized tradition in which the sitting president had virtually named his successor.

Second, Mexico’s opposition is divided into left- and right-wing parties, splitting the anti-PRI vote. Those parties’ attempt to form a coalition collapsed in September.

“Without the alliance, for the moment, everything indicates the PRI will win in 2000,” said Lorenzo Meyer, a prominent historian at the Colegio de Mexico.

“That will be 76 uninterrupted years of power. No one on the planet has done this.”

Even though the party is poised to remain in power, the election marks a sea change for the PRI and the president’s control of politics in Mexico.

Sunday’s primary, open to all registered voters, had marked a dramatic push into uncharted waters for an authoritarian party struggling to recover from internal feuds, declining popularity and economic and corruption scandals. Many had feared that Labastida’s top challenger, Roberto Madrazo, could bolt the party if he lost, leaching critical support from the PRI.

But in the end, Madrazo accepted the legitimacy of the contest he had frequently criticized as rigged in favor of Labastida, a close ally of President Ernesto Zedillo.

Labastida emerged with a commanding mandate: He won 273 of the 300 voting districts, according to an official count of 88% of the ballots. Further bolstering the candidate was a higher-than-expected turnout of about 9 million voters.

“These numbers show the PRI is convincing people,” said Luis Rubio, director of the Mexico City think tank Research Center for Development, known by its Spanish acronym, CIDAC.

Labastida’s victory proved the still-formidable strength of the party machine, thousands of pro-PRI unions, neighborhood organizations and officials who have controlled their followers by doling out government goodies. Most such groups backed Labastida, an uncharismatic civil servant. That prompted protests of unfairness from Madrazo and the two other primary candidates, Manuel Bartlett and Humberto Roque Villanueva.

Madrazo, 47, had styled himself as a PRI rebel, criticizing Zedillo’s economic austerity programs and urging voters to reject the “official” candidate. But many analysts said his attack ads--a novelty within the PRI--went too far.

“The PRI culture is one of discipline. Madrazo was practically trying to create a culture of insurrection,” said Jesus Silva-Herzog Marquez, a prominent political analyst.

While PRI officials basked in the success of the historic primary, it was by no means a cakewalk. On Sunday, Madrazo’s followers appeared to be preparing a challenge to the election’s legitimacy.

It was only at 12:30 a.m. Monday that Madrazo recognized his loss and announced that he would stay in the party. The change in tone led to speculation that he had resolved his dilemma the old-fashioned way--negotiating with the president to get government jobs and power for himself and his supporters. Madrazo has denied any such deals.

In the other primary race on Sunday, Jesus Silva-Herzog, the former ambassador to the United States, beat two other contenders to become the PRI’s candidate next year for Mexico City mayor.

While Labastida will be the man to beat in the presidential race, the election still might not be easy. He probably will face a strong challenge from ex-Gov. Vicente Fox, candidate of the conservative National Action Party, or PAN. Polls show little support for the third major candidate, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas of the left-leaning Democratic Revolution Party. Although the opposition is divided, anti-PRI voters might rally around Fox as the only viable contender.

If he does win, Labastida is expected to maintain most of Zedillo’s policies, including his embrace of free-market programs. Labastida, however, has vowed to increase social spending. He appeared to reach out to old-style party stalwarts when he declared Sunday night that the party will “move away from the route of Salinas”--former President Carlos Salinas de Gortari, the economic reformer and symbol of U.S.-educated “technocrats.” Salinas fell into disgrace through a series of corruption scandals after leaving office in 1994.

The possibility of yet another PRI presidential victory, featuring the departing president’s favored candidate, may suggest that little has changed in Mexican politics. In fact, say analysts, Sunday’s election marked a significant change.

The elimination of the dedazo--in which the president handpicked the PRI candidate--has removed a pillar of the president’s vast power and radically altered the incentives in Mexican politics.

In the past, the Mexican president controlled Cabinet members, governors and legislators by deciding who would get to be the party candidate. But now, politicians must bow to the voters, not the president, to get elected.

“The [control of] the candidacy was the ultimate linchpin of control,” said Rubio, the think tank director. “Now, this will no longer exist. Everything is going to be negotiated with leaders and groups in the party. The PRI will change dramatically in the next few years.”