Wahid Can Usher in Peace, Progress

Six months ago, observers feared that Indonesia’s transition from military dictatorship to electoral democracy might cause the country to break apart. Today, with the election of moderates as president and vice president, the nation has taken a step toward a stable, constitutional future.

Abdurrahman Wahid, the new president, is perhaps the nation’s most respected leader. Although his party polled only 12% of the votes in the recent elections, his power will be reinforced by that of his longtime ally, Megawati Sukarnoputri, the new vice president. Her party, Indonesian Democratic Party in Struggle, controls the largest bloc of votes in the Assembly, whose powers have been recently increased.

The two politicians stand for different kinds of power. Megawati, who has called for further democratization, has been the candidate of people’s power, with a strong following among political activists, particularly from urban areas and, above all, students. Wahid is the consummate practitioner of Indonesia’s distinctive brand of back-room consensus politics. He owes his election to the bridges he has built over the years to all of his country’s power factions, most significantly to the leaders of the once all-powerful army.

In Western eyes, Wahid is a paradox. Since 1984, he has been leader of the mostly rural and traditionalist Nahdlatul Ulama, by far the largest Muslim organization in Indonesia and, for that matter, the world. Yet he is a dedicated secular nationalist and a firm defender of the rights of the nation’s Christian and Chinese minorities. Above all, he has been the strongest Muslim voice against those who would like to see Indonesia--more than 80% Muslim--become an Islamic society or state.

Wahid’s position is a consistent one. He is a strong believer in the five guidelines, or Panca Sila, which in 1945 his father, the previous Nahdlatul Ulama leader, helped draft for the new Indonesian republic. These call for belief in God, humanitarianism, nationalism (the inclusion of all factions), democracy by consensus and social justice. The Suharto dictatorship used the Panca Sila as political propaganda, but for both Wahid and Megawati, they are a serious political faith.

In defense of the Panca Sila, Wahid in 1991 launched a Democracy Forum, which played an important role in the preparation for electoral politics after Suharto’s fall in 1998. In this role, Wahid frequently joined forces with Megawati. The two often issued joint statements to consolidate a post-Suharto consensus against violence and for orderly constitutional politics.

After Megawati’s party polled the highest share--34%--of the election votes, it looked at first as if Wahid would support Megawati for president. However, Megawati held out for more sweeping democratic changes than a majority in the Assembly, which includes nonelected members from the bureaucracy and armed forces, was willing to accept. Wahid appealed to her, both publicly and in person, to ensure her election by making the necessary compromises with more traditional members. When she refused, Wahid presented himself as the compromise candidate. The two leaders appear now to have reconciled.

There were serious doubts whether Wahid could play a leadership role. His most serious problem by far is his health. At 59, he has suffered two strokes, walks with difficulty and is half-blind. This opens the possibility that he will not serve the whole of his five-year term, allowing Megawati to succeed him.

Wahid has also been accused by his foes of being erratic and unpredictable. Last December, after having helped engineer Suharto’s departure from the presidency, Wahid, conscious of Suharto’s surviving influence, paid a surprise (and unpopular) visit to him in the name of national reconciliation. Another surprise was Wahid’s visit to Israel in 1994, after which he made an even more unpopular appeal for Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim nation, to open diplomatic relations with Israel.

Wahid can take such steps because of his well-established reputation for personal integrity and principle.

Indonesia still faces a number of acute and unresolved problems, both economic and political. Prominent among the latter are the future of dissident regions like Aceh and West Irian and, above all, the future status of the still powerful armed forces. Wahid can be counted on to move determinedly, if slowly, to resolve these problems.

The West may not be pleased by some of Wahid’s nationalist pronouncements, notably against the role played by Australia in East Timor. Yet there can be little doubt that Indonesia’s new leadership presents the most hopeful outcome for peace and progress in the world’s fourth-largest nation.