Forecaster Sees Unprecedented Storm Damage

A top hurricane forecaster predicted Friday that the increased storm activity over the last five years will continue for about two decades, with damage five to 10 times worse than ever before in the Gulf and Atlantic Coast states.

The next two decades or so should resemble a stretch seen from the late 1920s through the 1940s, Bill Gray said at the National Hurricane Conference, a gathering of experts from around the country and beyond.

The big difference is that many more people now live in harm’s way, he noted.

Gray, a professor of meteorology at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colo., is well known for his hurricane season forecasts.

According to Gray, hurricane activity runs in cycles, influenced by the ocean’s salt content, currents and water temperature.

He said the busy period ahead will be caused by a cyclical rise in salt content. Higher salinity changes the ocean currents, making water temperatures rise. Hurricanes draw their strength from warm water.

The population in the Gulf and Atlantic Coast states from Texas to Virginia rose from a little more than 24 million in 1930 to about 64 million in 1990, with some of the heaviest development taking place from 1970 to 1990, a period of relatively low hurricane activity.

“I don’t think we realize how lucky we’ve been the last 30 years,” Gray said.

In 1999, Gray predicted 14 named storms, nine of which would become hurricanes and four of which would be classified as major. As it turned out, there were 12 named storms, eight of which became hurricanes, with five of them major.

For 2000, Gray has predicted 11 named storms, including seven hurricanes.