Forecasters Expect Moderate Growth in Ad Spending

Two of the advertising industry’s leading forecasters expect more moderate growth in ad spending next year as the economy slows, after the Olympics and presidential election helped lead to a banner year in 2000.

Robert Coen, director of forecasting at Universal McCann, said he expected national advertising spending in all media formats to grow 6.3% to $151.8 billion next year. This year, national advertisers planned spending of $142.7 billion, up 11.8%.

“We think the media marketplace looks pretty strong,” Coen said at an annual media conference hosted by UBS Warburg, the Swiss bank that recently acquired PaineWebber.

Despite the gradual slowdown, Coen said he still expected advertising spending as a percentage of gross domestic product to increase this year, as it has for every year since 1994.

The other forecaster, Zenith Media Chairman John Perriss, predicted that global advertising spending would grow 6% next year to $351.7 billion, following a 7.9% increase this year.

“We’re in for a gradual soft landing,” Perriss said. “We see a gradual coasting down rather than running into a wall.”