Israeli Hawk Considers Run at a Wounded Dove

To the ecstatic chants of “Bibi! Bibi!” Benjamin Netanyahu came home to Israel on Monday, steeled to do battle for the prime ministerial office he was forced to abandon scarcely a year and a half ago.

His arrival timed to coincide with local top-of-the-hour news broadcasts, Netanyahu said he will decide within a few days whether to challenge beleaguered Prime Minister Ehud Barak in early elections that many here expect to be held in the spring.

“The country has hit rock bottom,” Netanyahu told a battery of journalists and well-wishers at Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv. “This must change.”

The possibility of Netanyahu’s return to politics has sparked feverish speculation here as Israelis face the deadliest fighting with Palestinians in years. With the peace process in ruins and no end in sight to the conflict, the country is desperately in search of new leadership.

Netanyahu hopes to step into that void, betting on opinion polls that show he could easily defeat Barak.

The violence that serves as a backdrop to the political turmoil escalated further early Monday: The Israeli army said Palestinian gunmen, attacking from three sides, attempted to storm Rachel’s Tomb, a Jewish shrine on the edge of the biblical city of Bethlehem. In retaliation, Israel launched two missile attacks from combat helicopters, targeting gunmen the army said were hiding in a Palestinian refugee camp. No one was killed, but more than 20 Palestinians were reported injured in the battle that raged for hours.

Palestinians said the Rachel’s Tomb assault followed an attack Sunday by Israeli soldiers and Jewish settlers on Muslim worshipers in the West Bank village of Hussan, south of Bethlehem. The army denied the account. Authorities in Bethlehem, traditionally considered the site of Jesus’ birth, have already canceled major Christmas celebrations because of the unrest that has claimed nearly 300 lives and helped cripple the Barak government.

Late Monday, the Palestinian village of Beit Jala, also on the outskirts of Bethlehem, was pounded by Israeli machine guns after the nearby Jewish neighborhood of Gilo--part of Jerusalem to Israelis, an illegal settlement to Palestinians--came under fire from the direction of Beit Jala.

While there is little doubt among Israelis that Netanyahu will run in early elections, he already faces obstacles. Foremost among those is Ariel Sharon, the hawk who has led the right-wing Likud Party since Netanyahu’s landslide loss to Barak. To unseat Sharon as Likud’s candidate for prime minister, Netanyahu would have to win a party primary in advance of the vote.

There are signs that elections may not be held at all. Some of the same legislators who overwhelmingly voted for early balloting less than a week ago are getting cold feet, fearful of eroding their own power and position.

Netanyahu dismissed as “tricks” the moves to put off the elections, saying he is confident Israelis will go to the polls sooner rather than later. He said his supporters are clamoring for him to return to the fray; he reportedly has been attempting to convince foes that he has softened his combative style.

A statement from Barak’s One Israel/Labor Party called on Netanyahu to stop casting himself “as the national savior.” The party said that once campaigns are underway, the Israeli public won’t forget the international isolation that Netanyahu’s hard-line positions brought Israel.

Netanyahu was so decisively defeated by Barak in May 1999 that he conceded within minutes of the polls closing. Barak assumed office on a wave of optimism and promises to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. Today, their roles seem almost reversed.

“It’s becoming more and more clear that Netanyahu’s policies [of standing tough against Palestinian demands] were right,” said Yuval Steinitz, a Likud member of the Knesset, or parliament, who supports Netanyahu. He noted that Netanyahu’s last two years in office were almost completely free of terrorist bombings.

During his administration, Netanyahu was roundly criticized for freezing the peace process and alienating both the Palestinian leadership and American mediators. At the same time, he became the first Likud leader to yield land to the Palestinians. His supporters say he can be expected to make few concessions and to slow down negotiations, but not forgo them altogether.

The silver-haired, silver-tongued politician is no doubt benefiting from what newspapers here call his “virtual candidacy.” Since he’s not really running yet in a race that hasn’t really begun, he is not forced to commit to concrete positions.

For all the talk of Netanyahu’s political comeback, however, the American-schooled politician in some ways never really left. His shadow has hung over Israeli politics for months. Especially on the right, no leader has emerged who could match Netanyahu’s electable star quality.

“From the moment Bibi announced he was leaving politics, people awaited the next moment when he would say he was coming back,” said veteran Israeli pollster Rafi Smith. “There’s been a sense all along that Sharon could not win an election and that he was just there temporarily. No one had the internal power to replace Bibi.”

Netanyahu narrowly avoided political doom when state prosecutors in September decided not to try him and his wife, Sara, on corruption charges. He has enjoyed a lucrative timeout from politics, working as a highly paid consultant to an Israeli high-tech firm and making the rounds on the lecture circuit. His return Monday was from a speaking tour in the U.S. that had to be canceled in the San Francisco Bay Area because of left-wing protests there.

During his 1996 campaign, Netanyahu skillfully exploited public fears about security and cast himself as an outsider who appealed to religious Zionists and working-class Israelis.

Netanyahu’s supporters now contend that rivals are plotting to stymie his return to office by changing the electoral system.

The idea of repealing the direct-election system for prime minister--which favors small parties and charismatic candidates such as Netanyahu--is gaining momentum. Opponents of the system argue that it has led to Israel’s current state of chaos because prime ministers can win elections without having the backing of a majority in the Knesset. Instead, they find themselves held hostage to splinter, single-agenda factions.

Reverting to the previous parliamentary system, in which votes are cast for parties instead of individuals, favors big parties and candidates like Sharon who otherwise would not appeal as widely to the electorate.

Israeli newspapers have reported, meanwhile, that negotiations to form a unity government including Barak and Sharon have not died; both leaders may see such an alliance, which would avert the need for elections, as the only way to derail Netanyahu’s challenge.

Every recent poll shows Netanyahu trouncing Barak by double-digit margins if the two faced off today. But analysts say the gap would narrow once Netanyahu was held up to public scrutiny.

“Let’s not forget that Netanyahu’s . . . collapse and the collapse of his government was due more to his personality, his personal style, corruption and arrogance, and the way he handled the internal affairs of his party,” said Ephraim Yaar, head of the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University. “He has not yet been an official candidate. Once he is, there will be systematic attempts to remind people of who he was.”

Also on Monday, in public remarks that shocked Israelis, a former head of the Israeli domestic security service blamed government policies for triggering the Palestinian revolt.

Ami Ayalon, retired head of the Shin Bet security service, said Israel is guilty of “apartheid” policies that go against the spirit of Judaism. He suggested that the Palestinians were following a logic in choosing violence, and spoke of the profound “humiliation” that Israel inflicts on Palestinian workers and others who seek to enter Israel.

Such comments are commonly heard from Palestinians and outsiders but rarely from an Israeli who has held senior-level positions in the security establishment.