Maintain Peace Momentum on Kashmir

Pakistan’s decision last weekend to join a cease-fire declared by India a few days earlier along Kashmir’s disputed line of control represents a watershed development in South Asia’s politics of war. Pakistani leader Gen. Pervez Musharraf clearly understood the gravity of India’s unilateral decision. Not since the days of the British raj has New Delhi resorted to nonviolence as a weapon of conflict resolution.

Musharraf’s countermove could pave the way for a longer-term cease-fire, lay groundwork for an ice-breaking summit in New Delhi before winter’s end and set the stage for serious trilateral negotiations aimed at resolving the Kashmir question.

Three factors played a role in the Pakistani general’s policy shift. First, he appears to have corralled his hawks. Since a Musharraf-approved August cease-fire by Kashmiri militants failed at the hands of his military-intelligence hard-liners and Pakistan’s raging religious fundamentalists, Musharraf has spent considerable political capital bringing his hawks on board the peace train or moving them off the tracks.

Second, U.S. support that led to the just-announced $596-million International Monetary Fund loan was critical to ward off bankruptcy and the accompanying hawkish arguments that the U.S. could no longer be trusted in the Kashmir equation. While the IMF technically had to sign off on the economic blueprint of a flailing Pakistani finance ministry, the timing of the loan grant--one day before Musharraf’s cease-fire announcement--showed how critically intertwined Islamabad’s political behavior has become with its economic survival.

Third, the Kashmiris finally stepped up to the plate and knocked in a few runs for the home team. In agreeing to meet with a prominent political leader from Indian-held Kashmir, Musharraf demonstrated a willingness to make good on his commitment to do what was best for the Kashmiris first. The cease-fire, in part, fulfilled his promise. Permitting a Kashmiri to travel to Islamabad on an Indian passport also demonstrated New Delhi’s willingness to open the door for trilateral talks that include Pakistan.

The inane cycle of escalating violence has, for the moment, stopped. The one-upmanship that is so characteristic of South Asian politics is paradoxically now promoting peace and unwinding dangerous nuclear tensions as the Pakistani general and the Indian leader try to outmaneuver each other. But much more needs to be done.

To maintain the momentum of the past few weeks, key structural arguments will have to be developed and pursued. Kashmiri militants, both indigenous and mercenary, need to reciprocate Pakistani and Indian military moves by ceasing hostilities in a bid to preserve the sanctity of the line of control. Syed Salahuddin, leader of Kashmir’s largest indigenous militant group, courageously offered a unilateral cease-fire in August. His silence now is deafening.

Peace on the ground will have to be followed by development of a common political agenda for talks to begin. Kashmir’s political and militant leaders will need to resolve internal differences and map out a blueprint for the territory’s future status: full autonomy, joining either India or Pakistan, or pushing for full independence.

To do this, Kashmiri political leaders will need to go to Islamabad for consultations with the militants and Musharraf. New Delhi should let them. Once there, the Kashmiris should seek a commitment from Pakistan to suspend direct support for, and prohibit external funding to, mercenary operations in the Kashmir valley--operations that are the most direct hindrance to Pakistan being included in political negotiations.

Pakistan’s “maximum restraint” policy at the line of control also needs to be shored up. Historically, Islamabad has used cross-border shelling as a cover to ease mercenary infiltration. To declare a cease-fire while Musharraf’s troops still encourage cross-border violations is an invitation for Indian retaliation, and a breach of trust and could lead to another collapse of the peace. Let us hope Musharraf is not playing war games with India again.

For its part, New Delhi must maintain a framework for dialogue with the Kashmiris that is free of rhetoric about India’s Constitution. Kashmir is a disputed territory--of that there can be no doubt. Acknowledging these key sensitivities will engender enormous goodwill to find a peaceful solution.

The endgame soon will have to be defined. Kashmir is about real people who have been tortured, raped, pillaged and murdered into physical and emotional submission. Yet their mental will defies all attempts to suppress it. India and Pakistan need to find a formula that foremost respects the right of the human being inside a Kashmiri.

Offering to evaluate an option for Kashmiri independence that puts the onus on Islamabad and New Delhi to win Kashmiri hearts and minds as opposed to destroying their will would be a great start.