Iranians Try to Get a Handle on Reformers’ Victory

Reformers and conservatives alike struggled Monday to come to grips with the monumental reformist victory in Iran’s election, as the count indicated that candidates aligned with President Mohammad Khatami could win as many as 200 of the 290 seats in parliament.

The magnitude of victory, which matched the surprise 70% landslide by Khatami in the presidential election of 1997, exceeded the most optimistic forecasts of many reformers before Friday’s vote.

To both sides, there could no longer be any doubt that a sea change has taken place in Iranian politics and that the alliance of conservative mullahs who have dominated the country ever since the 1979 Islamic Revolution has been deposed.

“It changes the state of affairs, and that is something to be reckoned with,” said Abdolali Rezai, a political researcher active in the pro-Khatami movement. “It is an affirmation that power resides in the people’s votes.”

For the first time, the reform movement of Khatami, made up largely of non-clerics, leftists and liberals, will have both executive and legislative power. While reformers now have the means to liberalize Iran, they will also be under more pressure than ever to deliver improvements in everyday life.

“People who wanted changes . . . they will expect action,” said Ahmad Borqani, a leading candidate in the pro-Khatami Islamic Iran Participation Front, who said his legislative priorities are press freedom and reform of the justice system to protect the accused.

Hard-Liners Under Pressure to Relax Rule

Faced with such an unequivocal mandate for reform, the remaining strongholds of conservative power--the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; the Council of Guardians, which protects Islamic orthodoxy as it supervises legislation and elections; and the judiciary, including the revolutionary and clerical courts--also are under pressure to bow to the popular will for greater freedom of speech and democracy.

For instance, the new reformist-dominated parliament will have power to reshape the 12-member Council of Guardians, half of whose members are ratified by parliament and half of whom are appointed solely by the leader.

As a result, analysts believe that the Council of Guardians is likely to become more flexible in approving candidates and parties to participate in elections. That would mean that various liberal, democratic and nationalist groups that have been banned in the past could compete. Already, before Friday’s election, the council did not disqualify as many candidates as in the past.

Nor is Ayatollah Khamenei seen as being immune to the public’s will. Originally identified closely with conservatives opposed to reform, Khamenei lately has moved to a more conciliatory neutrality. It may be indicative that Khamenei’s younger brother, Hadi, has joined the reform camp and was one of its leading vote-getters Friday.

In an interview, Hadi Khamenei said he expected his brother to recognize the election’s message. “I don’t think any power can resist the will of the people,” he said.

“I think we will see a more cooperative environment, definitely,” between the leader and the president, agreed Hadi Semati, a Tehran University political scientist.

Indeed, one source close to Khatami and reformists said they already are “very pleased” with the leader’s actions during the campaign, when he essentially stayed out of the fray. Although the leader retains power over the army and the security services, the source said he anticipates that Khamenei will align more closely with Khatami on many issues.

In the first hours after the reformist victory, the country’s judiciary also showed signs of a shift. Few here thought it was a mere coincidence that prison officials decided to give a furlough Sunday to two leading reform figures imprisoned for their beliefs.

The inmates, Abdollah Nouri and Mohsen Kadivar, said their one-week releases came out of the blue.

Nouri, probably the most popular reformer after Khatami, was sentenced to five years in prison last year for publishing opinions that a clerical judge deemed contrary to Islam and to Iran’s governing system. Greeted as a returning hero by his reformist colleagues, Nouri said he expected that the vote results could lead to his permanent release.

“The election results may, and can, influence everything,” he said.

As of Monday afternoon, the reformists had won 158 seats, for a clear majority in the parliament, election officials said. If the reform camp manages to win two-thirds of the 72 races that are likely to go to a second-round runoff--which seems highly probable considering the distribution of votes so far--pro-Khatami reformists will finish with more than 200 seats when the new parliament meets in May.

In the present parliament, reformers hold 80 of the 270 seats, with conservatives and their allies in the majority.

Ex-President’s Showing a Symbol of Sweep

If anything was emblematic of the reformists’ sweep, it was the humiliation handed to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who led the conservative ticket and was backed by some reformers. On Monday, he was running 27th out of 30 candidates in Tehran, according to partial official returns.

Rafsanjani had not made any public statements about his poor showing, but some reformers were speculating that he will retain his job as chairman of the country’s Expediency Council, a body that coordinates policy among different branches of government. His ambition to become parliament speaker probably has been dashed.

Before Friday, the conservatives had predicted that Rafsanjani would be the country’s No. 1 vote-getter. Instead, that honor went to Khatami’s younger brother, Mohammed Reza Khatami.