Putin Likely to Get Extremist’s Votes

It was a shabby little apartment on Moscow’s Koshtoyants Street that undid Russia’s strutting ultranationalist, Vladimir V. Zhirinovsky.

Zhirinovsky claims that he has never even seen the place, but he was formally ejected from the presidential race Friday after failing to declare the apartment as family property--leaving acting President Vladimir V. Putin the most likely beneficiary of his votes.

Putin, already regarded a shoo-in for the March 26 presidential election, is expected to pick up a chunk of Zhirinovsky’s support because of his hard line against separatist Chechnya, his tough and earthy language, and his rallying of nationalist sentiment--all of which appeal to Zhirinovsky supporters.

Zhirinovsky lost a Supreme Court appeal Friday to overturn a Central Election Commission decision last week dropping him from the race.

The flamboyant leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia seemed uncharacteristically deflated after Friday’s ruling--in contrast to his appearance at the commission session, when he screamed furiously at the chief commissioner, Alexander Veshnyakov.

“We do not even know where this street is,” Zhirinovsky said then, arguing that his income statement to the commission was 99% true and that an omission of only 1% was not grounds to throw him out of the race. “I would understand if it was a palace.”

The apartment in southwestern Moscow belongs to Zhirinovsky’s son, Igor Lebedev.

Zhirinovsky burst onto the scene in 1991, when he came in third in presidential elections, winning 6 million votes. Then he stormed forward in 1993 when his party won nearly 25% of the vote in parliamentary elections. But his support waned, and in the 1996 presidential election he came in fifth, with 4 million votes.

Liliya F. Shevtsova, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank, said Putin could count on an extra 3 million to 4 million votes because of Zhirinovsky’s departure from the presidential race.

“The fact that Zhirinovsky drops out of the race makes Putin’s chances of victory even more solid,” she said. “I am sure the ultranationalists and proponents of a strong state, who used to back Zhirinovsky, will choose Putin over [Communist leader Gennady A.] Zyuganov or any other candidate.”

Zhirinovsky has made a career of outrageous statements and deeds. He has penned books about reviving Russia’s imperial ambitions and about sex.

He often is dismissed as a buffoon and a boor. But he has always directed his rhetoric carefully, playing on the sense of alienation and impotence that many ordinary Russians feel.

If the few million Zhirinovsky votes swing to Putin, it could make the difference between a first-round win for Putin and a second-round fight. Under Russia’s presidential rules, the first-place candidate is immediately elected if he gains more than 50% of the vote; otherwise, a runoff between the first- and second-place candidates must be held.

Analyst Igor M. Klyamkin said Zhirinovsky had achieved his main goal, recently being voted in as deputy speaker of the Duma, the lower house of parliament, and he had little to lose from being thrown out of the presidential race.

“I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of some kind of a behind-the-scenes deal between the Kremlin and Zhirinovsky,” he said.