Election May Test Faith in Mexico’s Political System

Mexicans are voting today in a presidential election widely expected to be the nation’s cleanest and most democratic ever. But, in a worrying development, a significant part of the population anticipates fraud--and many appear willing to take to the streets if their candidate loses.

A recent national poll by the Mexico City daily Reforma found that one out of four respondents believed that the election results will not be credible. The two main opposition candidates, Vicente Fox of the center-right National Action Party, or PAN, and Cuauhtemoc Cardenas of the center-left Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, already have threatened not to recognize the winner if the balloting is marred by fraud.

In a sign of the tension surrounding the vote, the Reforma poll found that more than 60% of those questioned expected a post-election conflict.

“The big question of the election is not who wins but what will the loser do,” said Denise Dresser, a political scientist based at the Pacific Council on International Policy at USC. “That is the crux of the problem for Mexico today.”

It could seem ironic that so many Mexicans expect fraud in what is their most competitive balloting. For the first time in 71 years, an opposition candidate, Fox, is running neck and neck in opinion polls with the candidate of the long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, Francisco Labastida. Cardenas is well behind, with two minor-party candidates trailing.

And after years of electoral reforms that have transformed the old one-party state, Mexico at last has a legal framework that would permit the opposition to oust the ruling party, known as the PRI, from the presidency, the linchpin of the country’s entire political system.

But to many Mexicans, this is more than just an election. The charismatic Fox has managed to transform the vote into a referendum on the Mexican political structure itself--on whether the country should continue with the system built around one party that was established after the 1910-17 Mexican Revolution.

Many of Fox’s impassioned followers believe that the choice is between authoritarianism and democracy. At rallies, they belt out Fox’s campaign slogan: “Ya!” (“Enough already!”)

“Our country is not free,” said Lorena Elizondo, a 40-year-old teacher who was waving a PAN flag Wednesday at the party’s closing presidential rally in the central city of Leon.

“We want a new Mexico, with no corruption; with justice. A better Mexico,” she said.

Angelica Gonzalez, a 47-year-old homemaker also attending the rally, declared: “If Fox doesn’t win, it’s because the elections weren’t clean.”

And how would she react to a Fox loss?

“We’ll protest,” she vowed.

In a striking sign of Mexico’s current polarization, a Reforma poll found that most Fox backers thought the country is not a democracy. A majority of PRI supporters believed the opposite.

Such doubts about the country’s institutions explain why nearly half of Fox backers told Reforma that they would believe the results announced by their candidate over the official returns.

Fox’s support is particularly strong among precisely the kind of citizens who have the means and political confidence to organize protests: young people, urban dwellers and the middle class.

“The vote for Fox is anti-systemic. It’s a vote against the PRI as a way of life, as a way of distributing the spoils, of exercising power,” Dresser said.

If the ruling party wins, she added, “What happens to all those people who voted for Fox and demanded change and aren’t going to get it?”

In the final weeks of the campaign, Labastida blasted Fox for saying a ruling party victory will not be credible unless it is by at least 10 percentage points. President Ernesto Zedillo and other officials have blanketed the airwaves with assurances that the vote will be fair.

“Every one of the votes will be counted carefully and fully respected,” Zedillo said in a nationally broadcast radio address Saturday. Presidents are not allowed to run for reelection.

In fact, most observers do expect today’s election to be free of the obvious fraud of the past, when PRI supporters stuffed ballot boxes and cast multiple votes.

For the first time, the election is being overseen by an autonomous body, the Federal Electoral Institute. It has implemented numerous reforms to avoid fraud--from clear plastic voting urns to mandatory photo IDs for voters. Media coverage and election financing, which once gave a lopsided advantage to the PRI, have become far more equitable.

Robert Pastor, a U.S. political scientist who is part of an election-observer team led by former President Carter, said Mexico’s election safeguards are highly sophisticated.

“If you compare Mexico with what the U.S. has, we’re a fourth world country,” Pastor said.

But the campaign was marred by scores of complaints that the PRI had resorted to threatening citizens with the loss of their jobs or government benefits if they vote for the opposition. In addition, opposition parties and electoral observers complained that the PRI was in effect buying votes by distributing food packages, housing materials and other freebies.

Opposition parties say that, in a close election, such coercion and vote-buying could determine the winner.

On Saturday, Reforma reported a blatant example of electoral fraud: The governor of Michoacan state, Victor Tinoco Rubi, had ordered that state money be distributed to local PRI candidates, according to a recording of a phone call allegedly between the governor and a government official.

The governor told foreign correspondents Saturday that the report was false.

Today’s election will not just produce a new Mexican president. The 500-seat lower house of Congress, the Chamber of Deputies, is up for reelection, as is the 128-seat Senate. The PRI is expected to maintain its majority in the upper house but could be denied control of the lower house for a second consecutive time.

In addition, Mexico City will choose a mayor, in only the second time residents have been able to vote on the occupant of the powerful post, formerly filled by presidential appointment. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the PRD held a strong lead in preelection polls over PRI candidate Jesus Silva Herzog, a former ambassador to the United States, and the PAN’s Santiago Creel.

The first popularly elected mayor, Cardenas, left the job to run for president.

Two states, Morelos and Guanajuato--where Fox grew up--also will choose new governors. In addition, thousands of local officials will be elected.

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A Look at the Major Candidates

Francisco Labastida

Party: Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)

Born: Aug. 14, 1942, Los Mochis, Sinaloa.

Family: Married to Maria Teresa Uriarte, director of a university research institute on cultural issues; four children with first wife, Rosa Elena Gomez, and one child out of wedlock.

Education: Economics degree from National Autonomous University of Mexico. Further studies at Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile.

Career: His 37 years in government have included posts as energy minister, agriculture minister, interior minister and ambassador to Portugal, as well as positions in the Treasury and Education ministries and the former Planning and Budget Ministry. Served as governor of home state of Sinaloa from 1987-92. Won PRI’s first primary election for president in November.

Campaign issues: Proposes economic policies that would spread wealth more fairly and improve wages; wants English and computers taught in all schools and corruption fought head-on.

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Vicente Fox

Party: National Action Party

Born: July 2, 1942, Mexico City; grew up on ranch near Leon, Guanajuato.

Family: Divorced from Lillian de la Concha; four adopted children.

Education: Business administration degree, Ibero-American University; management course, Harvard University.

Career: Rose from route driver to head of Coca-Cola for Mexico and Central America in 15-year career; returned to family ranching business in 1979; ran successfully for Congress in 1988; lost race for Guanajuato governor in 1991 amid fraud allegations; won gubernatorial race in 1995; launched presidential campaign in July 1997.

Campaign issues: Vows to end the PRI “dictatorship” and be president of democratic transition; pledges 7% annual economic growth; vows to fight corruption and crime.

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Cuauhtemoc Cardenas

Party: Democratic Revolution Party

Born: May 1, 1934, Mexico City.

Family: Married to Celeste Batel; three children, including eldest son Lazaro, who is running for Senate for the PRD in Michoacan.

Education: Civil engineering degree, National Autonomous University of Mexico. Studied in France.

Career: Son of famed PRI President Lazaro Cardenas; led protests by Mexican students against U.S. intervention in Guatemala in 1954; leader of Movement of National Liberation in 1960s; served as governor of Michoacan state, 1974-80; broke from PRI in 1987 to oppose domination by free-market technocrats; ran as left-wing coalition candidate for president in 1988, lost in disputed election; formed Democratic Revolution Party in 1989; as PRD nominee ran third in presidential election in 1994; became Mexico City’s first elected mayor in 1997.

(Two other candidates also are competing, with little chance of winning more than 1%: Manuel Camacho Solis, a former Mexico City mayor, and Gilberto Rincon Gallardo, a longtime leftist activist. A sixth candidate, Porfirio Munoz Ledo, dropped out to support Fox’s candidacy.)