Left Headed for Another Capital Win

Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appeared headed toward a narrow victory in Mexico City’s mayoral race Sunday that could put him in the front ranks of Mexico’s new generation of politicians and make him an early contender for the 2006 presidential race.

In battling for Mexico’s second-most-important elective post, Lopez Obrador, 46, had to overcome a nasty qualifications challenge and the mediocre mayoral performance of his predecessor, patron and fellow Democratic Revolution Party member, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, who finished third in Sunday’s presidential race.

Displaying a gift for oratory, the winner ran a tireless campaign that included more than 1,000 appearances in this city, one of the world’s largest and most chaotic. His populist media campaign was filled with imagery aimed at the poor.

“None of his opponents made such an intense campaign,” said Alfonso Zarate, political analyst at Grupo Consultor Interdisciplinario of Mexico City. “Without a doubt, he is a candidate for the future.”

A former national president of his party, known as the PRD, and twice a losing candidate for the governorship of the southern state of Tabasco, Lopez Obrador had garnered 38% of the vote in early returns, barely edging out Santiago Creel of the National Action Party, or PAN, a former member of the lower house of Congress, who received 35%. Creel appeared to have ridden the coattails of his party’s presidential candidate, Vicente Fox, to make a surprisingly strong bid.

In an unexpectedly poor showing in third place, with 28%, was former ambassador to the United States Jesus Silva Herzog of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.

Lopez Obrador, who was recruited by Cardenas to run for mayor, was challenged both from within his party and by the PRI and the PAN, which claimed early this year that he hadn’t lived in the capital for the requisite five years prior to his candidacy.

But the challenges, which were turned back by the Federal Electoral Tribunal, only made something of a martyr of Lopez Obrador in many voters’ eyes. Trailing Silva Herzog earlier this year, he got a 10-point boost in the polls during the challenge process to surpass the PRI candidate by March. From then on, he added to his lead in voter surveys.

Lopez Obrador first gained a truly national profile--and public support--with a controversial loss in the 1996 race for the Tabasco governorship. The outcome of that contest led to claims of vote fraud.

Lopez Obrador also was generally praised for his performance as the PRD’s national president from 1996 to 1999, during which time the party increased its state governorships to four from zero and its seats in the lower house of Congress to 125 from 71, making it the main opposition party in Congress after the PRI.

But his greatest asset may have been his skill as a public speaker.

“Lopez Obrador is charismatic and people listen to him,” said Elena Poniatowska, a writer and social commentator. “The underdogs have always followed him.”

Cardenas, Mexico City’s first elected mayor, resigned the office in September to seek the presidency and named city official Rosario Robles to complete his term.

Cardenas’ abbreviated tenure was generally considered a disappointment after he had raised expectations about his ability to combat the city’s horrific problems, including crime, pollution and traffic. Citing Cardenas’ term, analyst Sidney Weintraub of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said he will wait to see how Lopez Obrador performs as mayor before declaring him presidential material.

“You’ve got to be careful. Mayors of New York don’t usually make good presidential candidates,” Weintraub said. “Cardenas may have been a lousy administrator, but he was also dealing with intractable problems.”