Francisco Arias Cardenas

On July 30, Venezuelan voters will go to the polls to elect a president, congress, governors and regional representatives. Later in August, they will elect municipal representatives. In all, 36,000 candidates are vying for nearly 6,100 posts. The elections are considered among the most important in this South American nation’s recent history.

President Hugo Chavez, first elected in December 1998, is seeking to consolidate his reforms and extend his term in office for an additional six years. The populist and charismatic former paratrooper, who rose to prominence after a failed coup attempt in 1992, has tried to change Venezuela’s political landscape through a Constituent Assembly, which has appointed a new supreme court, handpicked the council that oversees the elections and increased the role of the military in government. Opponents say his reforms are merely a vehicle for Chavez to concentrate power in himself.

His main challenger is Francisco Arias Cardenas, a former military commander who, along with the Chavez, led the coup attempt against then-President Carlos Andres Perez. Nearly eight years after both men promised to restore democracy to Venezuela, they are facing off in a bitter political battle that has captured international attention.

In contrast to Chavez, who is known for his fiery speeches laced with invectives against the Catholic Church and business leaders, Arias portrays himself as a moderate. Besides calling for greater respect for the church and political opponents, he believes Venezuela needs to attract more foreign investors.

Adding to the political tension is anxiety about the fairness of the vote. Initially scheduled for May 28, the elections were suspended after Venezuela’s high court said that technical problems threatened to skew the vote.

Arias spent most of his youth in a seminary. At 19, however, he told his mother he wasn’t going to become a priest and joined the armed forces. He spent the next 20 years rising up through military ranks until the coup attempt in February 1992. Considered the intellectual author of the uprising, Arias spent the next two years in prison.

Following his release, Arias, 49, joined his wife and two children in Zulia, where he launched a successful bid to become governor of that oil-rich state. Last March, he declared he would challenge Chavez, accusing his former colleague of having betrayed the ideals of the ’92 rebellion.

Recent polls show Chavez with up to a 15-point lead over Arias, but Arias insists he’s closing the gap. Many former Chavez supporters have joined his campaign. Recently, Arias sat down in his campaign headquarters in Caracas, the capital, to discuss the elections, the fate of democracy in Latin America and the role of international organizations in the region.

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Question: Why have you turned against Chavez?

Answer: Our joint identity came about out of a need to bring about change in this country. But when the Chavez government went about pursuing its own political aims, I realized there were very real differences between us. I have a great deal of respect for private property. I believe in the decentralization of power, of reinforcing the regional governments as a way to ensure that democracy reaches all citizens. Beyond that, I believe that political parties are necessary. I believe the armed forces can’t replace political parties and their role should be outside politics and subject to civil power.

Q: Do you believe Venezuela will follow Peru, where Alberto Fujimori exercises authoritarian power, or Mexico, where Vicente Fox’s electoral victory overthrew the political establishment?

A: Venezuela is more likely to follow the path of Mexico. Venezuelans will vote to assert democracy and eliminate the risk of an authoritarian government, which is what we are living through. Currently, there is no equilibrium of power. The president controls both judicial and legislative power. That is a real threat to democracy.

Q: Why do some democratically elected presidents behave like strongmen?

A: The old political parties prostituted themselves, at least in countries such as Peru, Mexico and Venezuela. This pushed the citizens of these countries to look for alternatives. In Venezuela, we have the first stages of a dictatorship masquerading as a democracy. Part of what needs to be done here is to strengthen the economy and restore the confidence of private investors.

Q: Some in the armed forces are unhappy with Chavez’s push to give the military a greater role in government. Do you believe there will be a coup attempt?

A: The government’s decision to place the armed forces in a political arena--that is to say, the government’s decision to take them out of their traditional role and push them toward a political role--has led some military officials to consider a coup attempt as a way out of the current situation. I have told them that they should consider their right to vote as the correct way to bring about change. I do not endorse nor have I promoted the idea of a coup.

Q: You were recently in Washington meeting with government advisors. What issues were on the table?

A: We spoke about many of these same issues, including the question of democracy in Venezuela, as well as my proposals for governing the country. We also spoke about relations between our two countries, particularly economic relations and the importance of the elections as a way of ensuring peace in Venezuela and in the region.

Q: The Organization of American States has been trying to broker some changes in Peru. But some have called the OAS powerless and questioned its effectiveness in resolving regional conflicts. Do you believe the OAS is an effective mechanism for resolving problems?

A: The OAS has an important role to play, but for it to assume this role, it must have basic agreements among its members. If there is agreement among the majority of its members, then it can have validity and be representative as an organization.

Q: Some are calling next Sunday’s elections a class war between rich and poor. Chavez has been able to capture a large base of support among the country’s poor, and in a country where nearly 80% of the 23 million people live in poverty, that is a huge voter base. Most of your support, according to recent surveys, is among the middle and upper classes.

A: There are some who are trying to make [the elections] into a class war. But this is not a war between rich and poor. What is going on is that the government is trying to frame the elections in this manner as a way of mobilizing the anger and frustration of a great many who have been mistreated by previous governments. They are playing a very dangerous game. What we must do is create wealth and guarantee jobs and prosperity for the vast numbers of Venezuelans.

Q: So is it a problem of getting your message out?

A: It is a difficult task to get people to listen to a specific plan. But I remain confident and believe in the country’s ability to understand. We have to present an alternative plan and not just rely on the emotional manipulation of voters, although reaching people at an emotion level is very important.

Q: The May 28 elections were canceled amid confusion and accusations of corruption and mismanagement. Many blamed the former National Election Council for the problem, saying that because its members were chosen by the temporary legislature that is controlled by Chavez’s political allies, it was a political pawns. Do you think the council’s new members can carry out fair elections?

A: As long as we are careful and monitor what is going on, we can help ensure the fairness of the elections. I am concerned over the contract they awarded to Indra [the Spanish company that will help tabulate the vote]. Still, we believe that by remaining a part of the process, of monitoring the council and taking part in discussions, we can help ensure that there is no fraud.

Q: Do you think the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries strategy of keeping oil prices within a certain range is working, given the protests over high gas prices?

A: The important thing from Venezuela’s perspective is that OPEC guarantee that prices don’t fluctuate so dramatically while ensuring good prices that satisfy both our customers’ needs and allow us to conduct economic planning. The high peaks can potentially create equally dramatic falls in prices, and that is what historically has created grave problems for our country.

Q: Do you think the price-band system is an effective way of avoiding that fluctuation?

A: It hasn’t shown itself to be the answer. It has demonstrated the possibilities, but we still haven’t seen, over time, how it can handle changes. You can’t say it is the best method because we have had good prices for eight months.

Q: Venezuela has been the site of several meetings between Colombian guerrilla groups and the Colombian government. Moreover, Chavez’s government has held unilateral discussions with some guerrilla leaders. What do you think Venezuela’s role should be in regard to Colombia?

A: We need to be very prudent in how we handle this situation. We should be very careful to not get directly involved. We can’t appear to be favoring one side in this conflict. We should be dealing directly with the Colombian government in any kind of discussions. *