Cohen Questions ‘Realism’ of Missile Defense Timeline

Two consecutive failures to shoot down a mock warhead in space with a land-based interceptor have “called into question the realism” of having a national missile defense ready by 2005, Defense Secretary William S. Cohen said Tuesday.

Nonetheless, Cohen said that it is too early to give up on the 2005 target date. Yet he conceded in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee that the failed flight tests in January and July were unhelpful.

“Perhaps it has called into question the realism of the date,” Cohen said, noting that this was the view of retired Gen. Larry Welch, head of a panel that is advising the Pentagon on its national missile defense project. He added that both he and Welch believe the 2005 target date is “the date we ought to continue to focus on.”

Cohen is due to make a recommendation to President Clinton--probably in mid-August--on whether to proceed toward having a system of 20 missile interceptors and a new high-powered X-band radar ready by 2005.

It is possible that Cohen would recommend moving the start-up date to 2006 or later. He gave no indication in his Senate testimony that he thinks this is necessary, although he pointedly left open that possibility by conceding under questioning that testing thus far has failed to show the system is technically feasible.

The 2005 date is important because, according to Pentagon projections, it would take five years to complete the construction necessary for an antimissile shield capable of defending all 50 states against a limited attack of ballistic missiles from North Korea.

The initial system is designed explicitly to intercept a threat from North Korea, which the Pentagon expects will have missiles capable of reaching U.S. soil by 2005.

If Clinton does not give the go-ahead this fall to begin groundbreaking work next year at the X-band radar site on Shemya Island, Alaska, then the project will be set back by at least one year, Cohen said.

Cohen noted that Clinton could approve awarding the construction contracts this fall, with the stipulation that a separate decision would be made next year to execute them. Harsh weather conditions restrict work on Shemya to the summertime.

Congress passed a law last year requiring the Pentagon to deploy a national missile defense as soon as technologically possible.