Syria Paves Way for Son to Take Power, but Some See Tough Transition Ahead

Syria’s political hierarchy moved swiftly Saturday to bring about a smooth transfer of power to Bashar Assad after the death of his father, President Hafez Assad. But many analysts believe that the relatively untested 34-year-old could eventually face difficulties in his bid to maintain and extend the Assad legacy.

The rapidity with which the Syrian parliament amended the country’s constitution to allow for a presidential candidate as young as Bashar Assad left no doubt that the ruling elite is ready to elect him president, likely when parliament meets June 25.

But that might not be the end of it. Bashar could face challenges from within his own family, from elements of the Sunni Muslim majority in Syria and almost certainly from Lebanese who resent Syria’s continued dominance over Lebanon.

“No doubt there will be a void and a sort of uncertainty,” said Kasem Gafar, an Arab political analyst in Doha, Qatar.

He said a process of housecleaning had begun, including changes in the Baath Party and in the government, to help pave the way for Bashar’s succession. But the process had not been finished when Hafez Assad died, he said.

“It may be said that Bashar’s succession would have been a certainty if President Assad had been able to complete the preparations,” Gafar said Saturday in an interview by al-Jezeera, a pan-Arab satellite television broadcaster. But now that is not so clear, he added.

“Is he as powerful as Hafez Assad? I think not,” said Egyptian editor Mohamed Sadani of the Al Ahram daily. “He will have problems, but we can’t know what their nature will be.”

On the other hand, said Sadani, Bashar might already be powerful enough “to make things work.”

During his rise to power and afterward, Assad never shirked from using force to maintain control--whether it was arresting dissident writers or ruthlessly crushing a rebellion, as in the city of Hama in 1982, or in moving against forces loyal to his younger brother Rifaat.

It remains to be seen whether Bashar, who was educated as an ophthalmologist, is made of the same material, said a diplomat in Damascus. In some ways, because he is not generally viewed as a strongman like his father, Bashar might have to be even tougher at first, the diplomat said.

Over the past year, Bashar has emerged as a formidable factor in Syrian politics. Even though he held no formal office, he increased his public profile almost day by day, taking part in Syrian government missions and giving interviews to Western and Arab newspapers in which he discussed the need for change in Syria.

Bashar Assad Led Corruption Inquiry

In April, he revealed in one such interview that he had recommended to his father candidates for a new Cabinet that would modernize and reform the economy.

Since then, he has been seen as the moving force behind a widening anti-corruption investigation aimed at senior officials of the recent past.

Several senior army officers have been retired, and powerful intelligence chiefs were sent packing in the inquiry. Among those targeted was the former intelligence chief, Brig. Bashir Najjar, sentenced to 12 years in jail for corruption. Mahmoud Zubi, prime minister since 1987, was fired in March and committed suicide two months later when he was about to be questioned.

According to the respected pan-Arab newspaper Al Hayat, even Syria’s former chief of staff, Gen. Hikmat Shihabi, who was one of Assad’s oldest friends, has gone into voluntary exile because of the probe.

Assad began preparing Bashar for leadership after the 1994 death of Bashar’s elder brother, Basil, in a car crash. Bashar, who at the time was being educated in Britain, returned to military service--he is an army colonel--and also used his role as head of the Syrian Computer Society to build bridges to the intelligentsia and technocrats.

Newspapers in Syria have helped fashion for him an image as the spokesman for a new generation in Syrian politics. Some analysts believe that Bashar’s strategy of selling himself to the Syrian people and to the West might include increasing the level of freedom inside Syria when he becomes president.

“He will have to have sources of legitimacy that are independent from the sources he has inherited from his father,” said Moustafa Elwi-Sef, a political analyst at Cairo University. “I believe that after a period of catching the breath, Bashar will give a larger space for free expression in the Syrian media and more liberties in general and better respect for human rights.”

In the last years of Assad’s life, there were signs that the president was determined to remove potential impediments to Bashar. In early 1998, for instance, the Baath Party expelled Assad’s brother Rifaat.

Assad Backers Likely to Support Bashar

The schism became complete in October, when Syria’s military forces clashed with defenders of an “illegal port” built by Rifaat near Latakia, which--according to media accounts--led to a purge of elements of the armed forces loyal to Rifaat.

This year, the anti-corruption drive has seemed aimed in part at removing officials who might have tried to dominate Bashar.

Some other longtime supporters of Assad, however, are more likely to remain temporarily to assist Bashar, said Elwi-Sef, including Foreign Minister Farouk Shareh.

Bashar “needs their experience and political support at least for a certain transitional period that may take months or a year or two . . . Afterward, it is expected that he will incorporate young elements of his own generation,” Elwi-Sef said.

Bashar had been expected to receive his first formal leadership job at the Baath Party congress June 17 that would, in turn, have paved the way to name him a vice president.

As it stands now, his first formal title will likely be simply, president.

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Bashar Assad

Hafez Assad’s son is expected to take over as president.

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* Age: 34

* Occupation: Ophthalmologist

* Politics: Official title is head of Syrian Computer Society. Bashar will be made a member of the leadership of the ruling Baath Party June 25, a requirement to become president.

* Military: Army colonel

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Times researcher Aline Kazandjian contributed to this report.