Milosevic Advances in Montenegro

A year after NATO bombs pushed his troops from Kosovo, President Slobodan Milosevic has achieved a modest but unexpected victory in the mostly bloodless struggle for Montenegro, the tiny coastal republic whose Western-backed leaders are defying the authority of his Yugoslav Federation.

Allies of the Balkans strongman wrested control of the port city of Herceg Novi from Montenegro’s ruling coalition by a wide margin Sunday in local elections that Western monitors judged to be free and fair.

Unofficial returns Monday indicated that the reformers were clinging to power in the Montenegrin capital, Podgorica, after a Western-financed spree to repave its streets, install park benches and garbage bins, and hike wages for its small army of police and public service workers.

Few places in the world could turn a couple of municipal elections into a mini-referendum on independence. Montenegro, the only remaining partner--with Serbia--in a federation ripped apart by Milosevic’s four ethnic wars of the 1990s, is such a place. Here the question of independence is explosive, and it lurks behind every political debate.

Sunday’s vote yielded a stalemate, confirming Montenegrins’ deep polarization between two identities--fellow Slavs sharing an Orthodox Christian culture with their more numerous Serbian neighbors, and aspiring members of the Western club that bombed Serbs.

As a result, Montenegro’s popular young president, Milo Djukanovic, is now less likely to move quickly toward full independence and risk an armed conflict with the Yugoslav army, his supporters say. He will have less of a case for boycotting the Yugoslav parliamentary elections that Milosevic is expected to call this autumn.

Milosevic’s allies now control seven of the 21 municipalities in this republic of 640,000 people. Because Herceg Novi is the most prosperous of the seven, Milosevic may invest some money to make it a showcase. Mayor-elect Djuro Cetkovic said Monday that he will “work through Serbia” to improve the city.

“The vote shows that one should be very careful in Montenegro,” said Srdjan Darmanovic, an independent political analyst in Podgorica. “The more divided we remain, the easier it is for Mr. Milosevic to stir up conflict here. So Mr. Djukanovic must continue to play a waiting game.”

In two years in office, Djukanovic has unilaterally seized some powers from Belgrade, the Serbian and Yugoslav capital. He has made the German mark the republic’s official currency, replacing the Yugoslav dinar; taken control of its borders with Croatia and Albania; and aligned his foreign policy with Western countries that are isolating Milosevic’s regime.

He also has built a 20,000-member police force to counter the 14,000 Yugoslav troops who are based here along with about 900 Milosevic loyalists in the 7th Military Police Battalion.

Calling for negotiations to put Montenegro on an equal footing with now-dominant Serbia in a loose confederation, Djukanovic has hinted that he might call a referendum on independence if he’s rebuffed.

The regime in Belgrade responded by closing the Montenegro-Serbia border to trade for several weeks this spring. Army commanders raised the tension by condemning separatism. When Djukanovic’s top security advisor was gunned down May 31, officials here blamed Belgrade.

It was in this volatile atmosphere that the Liberal Alliance, a small separatist party, provoked Sunday’s elections by quitting pro-Djukanovic coalitions in Podgorica and Herceg Novi.

The campaign, touching a third of Montenegro’s voters, turned into a midterm test for the independence goal pushed not only by the Liberal Alliance but also by large segments of Djukanovic’s Coalition for a Better Life.

The reclusive Milosevic did not set foot in Montenegro. His forces were led by Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic and joined by two Serbian parties in Milosevic’s ruling alliance. With the simple slogan “Yugoslavia,” they accused Djukanovic of selling out the country for Western largess--$55 million from the United States and $19 million from the European Union this year.

In Podgorica, Djukanovic’s forces won by the slimmest majority, taking 28 of the council’s 54 seats, a gain of one seat at the expense of the pro-Milosevic bloc, which dropped to 22.

In Herceg Novi, the pro-Milosevic bloc gained six seats to end up with 19 of the council’s 35, leaving the Djukanovic coalition with 14.

The Liberal Alliance won the remaining four seats in Podgorica and the remaining two in Herceg Novi, an overall loss of one.

Riot police broke up a clash early Monday after Milosevic’s allies threw beer cans from their headquarters at a parade of jubilant, horn-honking voters celebrating the reform camp’s victory here.

With passions running high, Djukanovic’s economic reform record and free-spending campaign apparently did little to sway voters.

“In the end it was a decision about their security,” said Lisa McLean, program director here for the Washington-based National Democratic Institute for International Affairs. The pro-Yugoslavia camp “framed the debate,” she added, by asking voters to decide: “Who better defends you?”--Milosevic’s army or Djukanovic’s police?

Local corruption scandals cost Djukanovic’s allies in Herceg Novi, as did a fear among 4,000 Yugoslav army dependents there that Montenegrin independence would force them to leave, election analysts said.

Calling the outcome “no cause for despair,” Djukanovic told supporters their defeat in Herceg Novi was more than offset in total numbers of votes by the victory in Podgorica. This “proves that Montenegro has stepped forward on the road to democracy,” he said, and that “Milosevic’s policy in Montenegro is on its deathbed.”