Troubled Ruling Party May Get Sympathy Boost

The gray hearse carrying the body of Keizo Obuchi had barely left the hospital after his death late Sunday afternoon as speculation mounted about whether sympathy for the former prime minister could boost the fortunes of the troubled ruling Liberal Democratic Party in a June election.

Well-known political commentator Minoru Morita believes that Obuchi’s illness and death were the ultimate sacrifice the career politician could make for his party--something that has done more for the LDP’s fortunes in the past several weeks than anything in recent years.

After suffering a stroke that newspapers blamed on overwork and then lying comatose for 43 days, Obuchi was transformed from the “dull ox” he called himself when he took office into a hero. In part, he earned plaudits simply by managing to hang on to his job for 20 months and providing the world’s second-largest economy, which has had eight prime ministers in the past decade, with a measure of stability.

Tributes to Obuchi poured in Sunday from leaders around the world. Political friends and rivals praised him for his skill in building consensus in this group-oriented society, his many small acts of kindness, and his particular dedication, as prime minister, to kick-starting Japan’s anemic economy.

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Thomas S. Foley called Obuchi a “good friend of the U.S. whose death will be mourned by many, including President Clinton, who recognized [his] tireless efforts to restore the Japanese economy and to bring Asia back from its financial crisis.”

In Washington, Clinton said he was “deeply saddened” by the loss of a man he called “a strong and vibrant leader.”

A private wake is set to be held tonight in Tokyo, followed by a family funeral Tuesday. Details of a planned state or LDP funeral were incomplete late Sunday.

As word of Obuchi’s death at 4:07 p.m. Sunday spread across Japan, several hundred people gathered along the streets of Tokyo as a motorcade accompanying the hearse circled the places most dear to the career politician’s heart in Nagatacho, Japan’s Capitol Hill: the boxy parliament building, the drab headquarters of the LDP and the brick prime minister’s residence. When the hearse--in which Obuchi’s wife, Chizuko, rode--arrived at Obuchi’s private Tokyo home, at least 400 people, huddled outside in a thunderstorm, bowed. Former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, who was elected to the parliament in 1963 along with Obuchi, waited without an umbrella.

The coffin was carried inside. Typically, Japanese mourners visit the household of the deceased to pray by the coffin, often adorned with a portrait, flowers and sweets or fruits.

“I feel very sorry for him. I heard he always cared about others, and so maybe he was focusing too much attention on them instead of himself,” said Miho Arakawa, 33, a homemaker out for some Sunday afternoon shopping in the Ginza district with her husband and baby.

If the LDP has decided to hold elections June 25, as has been reported--by law they can be held no later than October--it will be pulling out all the emotional stops: That day is Obuchi’s birthday.

The last prime minister who died while in office, Masayoshi Ohira in 1980, helped the LDP to victory in the next election a month later, thanks to the sympathy vote.

Even so, sympathy alone may not mean votes for the LDP, which except for a brief hiatus in 1993-94 has ruled Japan for five decades. If it fails to win enough seats in the elections for the House of Representatives, the party will lose the post of prime minister, who is elected by fellow lawmakers.

For the next two weeks or so, no one is likely to say anything critical about Obuchi--”while the smell of incense fills the air,” as Morita put it, referring to the Buddhist funeral ritual. That would be considered rude.

“But in the four weeks that follow before the election,” he said, “people may no longer be thinking about Obuchi’s death at all.”

There are plenty of other issues they may be focusing on instead, said Yoshiaki Kobayashi, political science professor at Keio University. One is whether they like the LDP’s current standard-bearer, Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori.

Mori’s short tenure makes him difficult to criticize, Kobayashi said, because he “hasn’t done anything except go abroad [on a whirlwind international trip to meet the world’s leaders] and visit Okinawa.”

Then again, in the opinion of Atsuko Fujita, a 46-year-old Tokyo homemaker, Mori has done very little to impress.

The low-key, affable Obuchi “had that nice-guy look, compared to Mori, who is like a dokenya,” a sort of construction boss, she said, referring to the current prime minister’s burly physique. “He is very arrogant.”

In addition to being fed up with the anemic economy, many Japanese have other gripes. Though there has been little public outcry, many say they were infuriated by the failure of the LDP government to disclose the seriousness of Obuchi’s condition for nearly a day and by the secretive methods the party used in designating Mori as his successor.

Typifying the secrecy, Obuchi’s doctors dispensed no information to the public about the prime minister’s condition while he lay in a coma and spoke only after Obuchi died. Though the doctors cited the family’s privacy, the lack of information throughout the illness only fanned the public’s worst fears.

“It was the worst case in 53 years of nondisclosure,” Morita said.

Reporters grilled the doctors about whether Obuchi would have been capable of designating Mikio Aoki, the chief Cabinet minister, to take over as acting prime minister in his absence, as Aoki claimed the day after Obuchi was hospitalized. Japan has no constitutionally designated succession method, and the prime minister designates who will take over in his absence or illness.

Aoki told the public that about 7 p.m. April 2, about 16 hours after being admitted to the hospital, Obuchi had told him to take care of things in his absence. Soon thereafter, Obuchi slipped into a coma, Aoki said.

Obuchi’s neurologist, Yoshikuni Mizuno, said Obuchi was probably able to utter short phrases before he gradually lost consciousness.

Was he surprised when he heard Aoki’s comments?

“To be honest, I was a little surprised. But I’m not a political expert,” the physician said.

Asked if Obuchi had been brain dead for a while, as many suspected, Mizuno said, “The brain waves were not flat until the last moment.”

Since early May, Obuchi’s already critical condition had been deteriorating and his blood pressure dropping--meaning the medication he had been given to raise his blood pressure was no longer working.

Doctors revealed that the family had indicated that it wanted Obuchi to be kept alive as long as his heart was beating. His wife and three children, who were at his bedside when he died, had taken turns rubbing their hands up and down his legs, saying, “Papa,” while Obuchi was comatose.

“After [his heart] stopped beating, they didn’t want us to give him treatment because the family understood the situation and we doctors judged there’d be only a tiny possibility to recover,” Mizuno said. “That’s why we let him go quietly.”