Chance for Reform in Iran at Last

Iranians have voted overwhelmingly for change in their last two national elections. The new parliament, scheduled to convene Sunday in Tehran, could begin providing it.

For the first time since the Islamic revolution 21 years ago, moderates will control the legislature. The Feb. 18 election gave more than two-thirds of the 290 parliamentary seats to reformers who want to ease oppressive political, cultural and social constraints that regulate Iranian life. But despite broad popular support, the reformers still face a struggle. The levers of power--control over the military and security services, state television and the judiciary--remain firmly in the hands of hard-liners.

The reformers, however, could find themselves with an unexpected if wary ally. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, until now aligned with Iran’s clerical conservatives, shows signs of accepting the electoral mandate awarded the reformers. Last week he ordered the powerful Council of Guardians to stop stalling and certify the election results. Khamenei had signaled his shift a week earlier, in a speech saying that popular support for change should be accepted, provided it doesn’t endanger Islamic principles. Both before and after the February elections, reformists made a point of expressing their respect for those principles.

President Mohammad Khatami, elected with 70% of the vote three years ago as an advocate of change, this week confronted the mullahs on their own ground. A cleric himself, Khatami insisted that “no one can claim his understanding of Islam to be the only right one.” By disputing the hard-liners’ claimed monopoly on Islamic values, Khatami is calling into question the whole basis of the conservatives’ authority. The reformers, however, can be expected to move cautiously along the path of liberalization. They don’t want to provide any excuse for a militant backlash.

A big question is whether Khatami will be able to push ahead on better relations with the West, which could give Iran’s deeply depressed economy a major boost. The final say on foreign policy rests with Khamenei. That makes it unlikely that Tehran will respond positively any time soon to Washington’s signaled interest in reducing tensions. Still, change is in the air. It’s what Iranians have voted for and what they now have their best chance in two decades of achieving.