County’s Home Sales Dip as Prices Increase
Reflecting the lack of inventory, home sales in Ventura County slumped in October, while prices continued to rise.
Analysts say the numbers illustrate the law of supply and demand and are not yet a sign that the market is slowing or that buyers are being priced out. Surging prices, they say, suggest that the market is headed for a robust period through the beginning of the year, a time when sales typically taper off.
The median price for homes in Ventura County jumped nearly 7.1% from October 1999 to $258,000, while the number of sales slumped 5.3%, from 1,263 to 1,196, according to a report released Tuesday by DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla research firm.
“Things are still very lively in the county,” said Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast Project. “There’s a big run to get as much housing as they possibly can because everybody knows there’s going to be a scarcity later on.”
The sales figures include new and resale homes as well as condominiums. The median is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
The interest rate for an average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 7.37% Monday, according to Bankrate.com, which publishes nightly averages based on its survey of nearly 3,000 banks in 50 states.
Analysts made it clear that any slump in the number of homes sold is in part because last year was so phenomenal.
The dip may also be occurring because the stock of available housing doesn’t completely match what people are looking for, said John Karevoll, the DataQuick analyst who prepared the report.
“The region as a whole has seen a tremendous surge in categories where there’s not a lot of housing stock,” he said.
Buyers of mid-range housing took a bit longer to catch up economically with their wealthier counterparts and only now are looking to buy homes.
Karevoll said median prices could easily reach $350,000 and not cause problems in the market.
“People wouldn’t like it, but the purchase patterns are illustrating that people aren’t stretching,” he said. “If we take a look at how much pain they’re willing to take, it could go a lot higher.”
In Simi Valley, first-time buyers are being locked out, and many are searching elsewhere for homes, said Victoria Doyle, a real estate agent with Century 21 On Track.
“In [this] market, we don’t have a single home under $200,000,” she said. “They’re either picking condos or moving out of the area.”
Sales have been strong in both Oxnard and Camarillo, said Jim Chutuk, who manages Prudential California branches in both cities.
“It’s consistent. It’s not wild,” he said. “Instead of doing $17 million a month [as his company did early in the year], we’re doing $10 million a month, but . . . that’s better than any time in history.”
Chutuk said an example of the swift rise in prices is a Camarillo condominium his daughter bought 18 months ago for $142,000. A similar one just sold for $195,000.
Ojai had the largest jump in sales for October, with prices rising 39.1% to $359,000. West Ventura had the next highest jump, with prices up nearly a third to $224,000, although the number of homes sold slumped 37% to 29.
Newbury Park and west Camarillo both saw sales slip by about a third, with 77 and 63 homes sold, respectively.
South Oxnard was one of the few areas to see a sales increase, up by about two-thirds, to 59 homes.
Analysts said the price increase bodes well for the housing market, even if inventory is down.
“There’s so much momentum still,” Schniepp said. “The first quarter of 2001 is basically a done deal.”
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Ventura County House Sales
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October 1999 October 2000 Number Median Number Median City / ZIP Code of sales price of sales price CAMARILLO 93010 95 $255,000 63 $285,000 93012 72 $265,000 65 $275,000 FILLMORE 93015 12 $186,500 16 $178,250 MOORPARK
93021 48 $229,000 51 $282,000 OAK PARK 91377 38 $290,000 30 $355,500 OAK VIEW 93022 10 $224,000 10 $251,000 OJAI
93023 27 $258,000 28 $359,000 OXNARD 93030 122 $191,750 93 $224,000 93033 36 $169,250 59 $179,500 93035 51 $250,000 48 $255,000 PORT HUENEME 93041 50 $159,000 48 $148,500 SANTA PAULA 93060 29 $170,000 19 $179,500 SIMI VALLEY 93063 90 $213,500 117 $264,000 93065 140 $215,000 130 $246,250 THOUSAND OAKS 91320 117 $305,000 77 $352,000 91360 67 $245,000 78 $304,500 91361 25 $334,000 22 $405,500 91362 106 $340,000 82 $429,750 VENTURA 93001 46 $172,500 29 $224,000 93003 98 $243,250 77 $226,000 93004 30 $246,250 36 $241,000 COUNTYWIDE 1,263 $241,000 1,196 $258,000
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Source: DataQuick Information Systems
