Will of the Serbs Is Key

Armed with a clear victory in the Sept. 24 elections, the opposition to Slobodan Milosevic’s rule in Yugoslavia vows to stage a peaceful but determined revolt for as long as it takes to drive the Serbian strongman from office. Western governments have thrown their weight behind Vojislav Kostunica, leader of the opposition coalition, but they can go only so far. Milosevic is already raising a nationalistic alarm, declaring there is a threat of foreign occupation.

The key to a Milosevic departure is the will of Serbs to stand up to their ruthless leader, plus a nudge from Moscow, Serbia’s traditional ally, to push him aside.

This is a critical week for Yugoslavia. Milosevic’s officials declared the election inconclusive and scheduled a second round of voting for Sunday. Kostunica, robbed of outright victory, declined to participate and called on Serbs to go on strike until Milosevic steps down. Earlier this week protests and strikes brought a string of towns to a halt and stopped coal production at mines serving the country’s largest power plants. The strikes now are spreading to other regions.

A few days of the “Velvet Revolution” in 1989 brought down Communist governments in Central Europe; removing Milosevic--indicted as a war criminal, the man who orchestrated Europe’s most murderous “ethnic cleansing” of the last 50 years--will be a lot more difficult. He once told a newspaper he “has no moral dilemmas” about using force to cling to power.

Milosevic himself is sitting on a wobbly throne. The police, his strongest allies, have acted with restraint, and the army has said it would not obey any orders to shoot demonstrators. Many of his Socialist Party allies are jumping ship. Still Milosevic is surrounded by a desperate group of cronies who benefited most from his corrupt rule and who, like him, have much to lose. He is still in charge of the media, powerful tools of his authoritarian rule. Cornered, Milosevic will be at his most dangerous and will stop at nothing to provoke a crisis that would allow him to declare military rule.

The Serbs will need to keep up domestic pressure by shutting down the arteries of Serbia’s economy. They will also need outside help to isolate Milosevic; not from NATO countries, which lost their sway because of last year’s bombing, but from Russia, a fellow Slav country still considered an ally.

Moscow played a big role in getting Serbian troops out of Kosovo, and it can help the Serbs in ridding themselves of Milosevic. Russian President Vladimir V. Putin was helpful in offering to play the role of a mediator between Milosevic and the opposition. But it is unclear whether he wants to negotiate an endgame for Milosevic or to find some way to keep him in office a while longer.

Putin’s choice should not be difficult. Milosevic has lost legitimacy at home, and he can remain in office only by inflicting pain on his people. That of course will not stop him. Only when he is gone will Yugoslavia’s most critical problems be solved.