Parties Favoring Breakup Win in Montenegrin Vote

In a major step toward the further breakup of Yugoslavia, voters in this country’s junior republic gave a majority of seats in parliament Sunday to parties favoring independence.

“We won a difficult and very important victory,” Milo Djukanovic, the president of Montenegro, declared early today. “A democratic, pro-European Montenegro will be the most important pillar in achieving our goal of restoring Montenegrin statehood, which we believe will come very soon.”

About 500 supporters who had crowded into an auditorium at his party headquarters responded with the chant “We will have a state!”

According to unofficial estimates early today by the independent Monitoring Center, Djukanovic’s “Victory Is Montenegro’s” coalition plus other pro-independence parties won a total of 44 seats in the 77-member parliament. The victorious parties have said they will hold a referendum on independence this year, possibly at the end of June. Opinion polls show it very likely to be approved.

Restoration of Montenegrin independence after 83 years of linkage to Serbia, Yugoslavia’s dominant republic, could have consequences for the entire Balkan region. Many ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, a province of Serbia that has been under United Nations administration since mid-1999, hope it would speed up their own drive for independence. Some observers think it could trigger greater instability in Bosnia-Herzegovina by encouraging separatist demands there by ethnic Serbs and Croats. It would inevitably affect politics in Belgrade, the Yugoslav and Serbian capital.

Different Histories

Montenegrins and Serbs share a common language and the Orthodox Christian faith but have very different histories. Serbia was part of the Turkish Ottoman Empire for centuries, while the Ottomans never conquered Montenegro.

The struggle between pro-independence forces and the pro-unity camp--which is centered on the “Together for Yugoslavia” coalition and won a projected 33 seats--is partly a debate over how to interpret history.

“Relations between Serbia and Montenegro for the past 100 years weren’t good because Serbia by whatever means wants to have Montenegro as one of its states,” said Miodrag Pavlicic, 50, a surgeon here who backs independence.

But Zika Stevanovic, 55, an economist who opposes independence, said that for centuries Serbia and Montenegro have been “one people, one faith, one community.”

During the Ottoman era, “there was an artificial division between the two groups of people, who didn’t have an opportunity to unite,” Stevanovic said. “Once they united, why wouldn’t they stay together? The issue is faith, in this case the Orthodox faith. Also, families here and there are linked.”

Djukanovic was once a close associate of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, but he broke with his mentor in 1997 and gradually freed Montenegro of many aspects of control from Belgrade.

The United States and the members of the European Union, motivated in part by a desire to weaken Milosevic, gave the Podgorica government vital financial backing. But these countries opposed formal independence out of fear it could strengthen other demands for redrawing Balkan boundaries and possibly trigger new wars.

Belgrade leaders have also played up these fears.

“Any border changes in the region will revive the unquenched thirst for new small states and push us into a whirlwind of new clashes, armed conflicts, crises and instability,” Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica declared in an interview published last week.

Yugoslavia had six republics under communism, but Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia declared independence in the early 1990s. Of the four, only Macedonia achieved independence without a war.

Montenegrin supporters of independence generally dismiss the idea that what happens here will have any effect in Kosovo, on the grounds that ethnic Albanians there will demand independence in any case. As Montenegrin independence looks increasingly difficult to prevent, Western countries also seem to be easing off on their determination to resist it.

“Publicly, we still support the preservation of Yugoslavia,” said a Western diplomat who spoke on condition he not be further identified. “But we know that’s becoming less likely with every victory Djukanovic wraps up. I think the Europeans and the Americans are looking to limit the effect of Montenegrin independence on regional stability.”

But in Kosovo, where the large ethnic Albanian majority is virtually unanimous in wanting independence, the trend in Montenegro is seen as helpful.

“Whatever happens in Montenegro, Kosovo is going toward independence and nothing can stop that,” said Rizah Deshishku, 31, a worker at a construction supplies firm. “Montenegro becoming an independent state can only speed up Kosovo’s independence.”

Montenegrin independence “will literally destroy the idea of Yugoslavia,” said Haqif Mulliqi, 40, publisher of Gazeta E Re, an Albanian-language daily newspaper in Kosovo. “This is why all the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo see this as an opportunity to get the international community to recognize their demands for independence.”

With Milosevic out of power and now imprisoned, no one expects Montenegrin independence to lead to a violent clash with Belgrade. Both Kostunica and Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic have said that although they oppose Montenegrin independence, they will not use force to resist it.

Separation Issues

There could, however, be hard bargaining between Belgrade and Podgorica over the terms of their divorce, if it comes. Key issues include whether their border would remain open to free trade and travel and whether Montenegrin citizens living in Serbia would be treated like any other foreigners.

Although pro-independence parties Sunday did not capture the two-thirds majority needed to change Montenegro’s constitution, many observers think that they could get around this problem by creating a new constitution rather than amending the old one.

The desire for independence not only has roots in a sense of separate national identity but reflects a growing belief that because Serbia has about 15 times the population of Montenegro, an equal partnership between the two republics is impossible. Many here also think that Montenegro can integrate into Western Europe more rapidly if it is not linked to Serbia and its severe economic problems.

Younger, better-educated, better-traveled and more urban voters generally tend to support independence, while opposition has been strongest among older people, the rural population and people living in northern areas closer to Serbia. Ethnic Albanian and Muslim minorities, which together make up about 22% of Montenegro’s 650,000 people, lean heavily toward independence, according to polls. Most people who identify themselves as Serbs rather than Montenegrins favor remaining in the Yugoslav federation.

Montenegro, which had been an independent kingdom, became part of Yugoslavia in 1918. People here often refer to that as the “first” Yugoslavia, with the post-World War II Communist state being the “second” one. The “third” Yugoslavia is the current surviving union.

“We will remember the 20th century as . . . a nonstop struggle for preservation of our identity,” Djukanovic declared at his coalition’s last preelection rally. “After all the experiences of living together in three Yugoslavias, contemporary Montenegro has matured democratically and is ready to take its destiny in its own hands and in the spirit of integration take a dignified place in the family of European states.”

Special correspondent Blerim Gjoci in Pristina, Yugoslavia, contributed to this report.